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Match Centre SWEDEN - Allsvenskan Analysis
SOCCERTAB ANALYSIS
SWEDEN flag SWEDEN - Allsvenskan • 28 Oct 2026

Goteborg

HOME
45+'
1:0
Live

Djurgarden

AWAY
Selected market
Double Chance X2
1.25
Current bookmaker price
Expected Value-2.35%Vs form-based fair odds
Historical Sample2,000Comparable odds records
Historical Hit Rate69.4%Wins among decided matches
Historical ROI-12.27%Flat 1-unit calculation
Probability model

1X2 probability distribution

Bookmaker odds and their normalized 1X2 probabilities.

100% normalized
Home WinOdds 3.74
25.4%
DrawOdds 3.74
25.4%
Away WinOdds 1.93
49.2%
The displayed 1X2 probabilities show the bookmaker market. Expected value is calculated separately against the shared recent-form Poisson model, using only completed matches before kickoff.
Market scanner

All available markets

Compare each current bookmaker odd with the fair price from the shared recent-form model.

MarketCurrent OddsFair OddsValue
1Home Win
 3.74 4.57 -18.17%
XDraw
 3.74 3.22 +16.31%
2Away Win
 1.93 2.13 -9.25%
1XDouble Chance 1X
 1.85 1.89 -1.99%
12Double Chance 12
 1.25 1.45 -13.87%
X2Double Chance X2
 1.25 1.28 -2.35% Selected
DNB1Draw No Bet 1
 2.75 3.15 -12.67%
DNB2Draw No Bet 2
 1.42 1.47 -3.09%
Comparative form

Common-opponent evidence

How both teams performed against the same league opponents before this fixture.

2 shared opponents
Evidence overview

Away team performed better by 33.3%

Based on 2 shared opponents. Historical comparison only; it does not guarantee the result.
Goteborg
Points earned4
Goal difference+1
Odds performance 1.50
Djurgarden
Points earned6
Goal difference+4
Odds performance 1.00
Match-by-match comparisonMost recent completed result against each shared opponent
Win Draw Loss
Shared opponentGoteborgDjurgarden
GAIS
1–1
DrawAway · 25 Oct 2026
1 pts
2–0
WinHome · 14 Sep 2026
3 pts
Brommapojkarna
1–0
WinAway · 19 Sep 2026
3 pts
2–0
WinAway · 16 Oct 2026
3 pts
League strength

Recent-form Poisson model

Recent completed results, venue-specific scoring and goals conceded estimate fair probabilities. The strongest 1X2 outcome is selected first, then the highest expected-value eligible market is identified.

FORM MODEL

Goteborg

Position#9
Played25
Wins10
Draws7
Losses8
Goals For35
Goals Against44
Goal Difference-9
Points37
Points / Game1.48
Win Rate40.0%
GD / Game-0.36

Djurgarden

Position#3
Played25
Wins15
Draws3
Losses7
Goals For52
Goals Against23
Goal Difference29
Points48
Points / Game1.92
Win Rate60.0%
GD / Game1.16
Calculation: Recency-weighted goals scored and conceded, separate home/away performance, league scoring baseline, sample-size shrinkage and home advantage feed a Poisson score model. Fair odds are compared with bookmaker odds to calculate expected value.
Home Probability21.88%
Draw Probability31.10%
Away Probability47.02%
Historical evidence

Comparable-odds performance

Completed matches where the same market traded within the selected odds range.

1.10 — 1.40
Wins1,388
Losses612
Voids / Draws0
Avg. Goals3.03
Historical data is descriptive. Small samples may produce unstable percentages, and missing odds or scores are excluded.
Team form

Recent completed matches

Only the recent completed matches of the two teams in this analysis are shown.

6 each
GoteborgLast 6 completed
28 Oct Goteborg 1 – 0 Djurgarden
25 Oct GAIS 1 – 1 Goteborg
17 Oct AIK 2 – 2 Goteborg
09 Oct Goteborg 1 – 0 Vasteras SK
19 Sep Brommapojkarna 0 – 1 Goteborg
12 Sep Goteborg 2 – 1 Halmstad
DjurgardenLast 6 completed
28 Oct Goteborg 1 – 0 Djurgarden
24 Oct Djurgarden 2 – 2 Orgryte
16 Oct Brommapojkarna 0 – 2 Djurgarden
15 Oct Brommapojkarna 0 – 2 Djurgarden
11 Oct Hammarby 0 – 1 Djurgarden
20 Sep Djurgarden 1 – 2 Elfsborg