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Match Centre EUROPE - UEFA Champions League Women - League phase Analysis
SOCCERTAB ANALYSIS
⚽ EUROPE - UEFA Champions League Women - League phase • 28 Oct 2026

Bayern Munich W

HOME
Half Time
1:2
Live

Real Madrid W

AWAY
Selected market
Double Chance X2
2.35
Current bookmaker price
Expected Value8.31%Vs form-based fair odds
Historical Sample2,000Comparable odds records
Historical Hit Rate48.4%Wins among decided matches
Historical ROI13.39%Flat 1-unit calculation
Probability model

1X2 probability distribution

Bookmaker odds and their normalized 1X2 probabilities.

100% normalized
Home WinOdds 1.54
60.6%
DrawOdds 4.73
19.7%
Away WinOdds 4.73
19.7%
The displayed 1X2 probabilities show the bookmaker market. Expected value is calculated separately against the shared recent-form Poisson model, using only completed matches before kickoff.
Market scanner

All available markets

Compare each current bookmaker odd with the fair price from the shared recent-form model.

MarketCurrent OddsFair OddsValue
1Home Win
 1.54 2.21 -30.37%
XDraw
 4.73 4.49 +5.36%
2Away Win
 4.73 3.08 +53.78%
1XDouble Chance 1X
 1.15 1.48 -22.39%
12Double Chance 12
 1.15 1.29 -10.62%
X2Double Chance X2
 2.35 1.83 +28.75% Selected
DNB1Draw No Bet 1
 1.24 1.72 -27.87%
DNB2Draw No Bet 2
 3.81 2.39 +59.37%
Comparative form

Common-opponent evidence

How both teams performed against the same league opponents before this fixture.

1 shared opponent
Evidence overview

Common-opponent evidence is level

Based on 1 shared opponent. Historical comparison only; it does not guarantee the result.
Bayern Munich W
Points earned1
Goal difference0
Odds performance 3.00
Real Madrid W
Points earned1
Goal difference0
Odds performance 3.00
Match-by-match comparisonMost recent completed result against each shared opponent
Win Draw Loss
Shared opponentBayern Munich WReal Madrid W
Manchester City W
2–2
DrawHome · 22 Sep 2026
1 pts
1–1
DrawAway · 01 Oct 2026
1 pts
League strength

Recent-form Poisson model

Recent completed results, venue-specific scoring and goals conceded estimate fair probabilities. The strongest 1X2 outcome is selected first, then the highest expected-value eligible market is identified.

FORM MODEL

Bayern Munich W

Position#4
Played2
Wins1
Draws1
Losses0
Goals For5
Goals Against2
Goal Difference3
Points4
Points / Game2.00
Win Rate50.0%
GD / Game1.50

Real Madrid W

Position#12
Played2
Wins0
Draws2
Losses0
Goals For2
Goals Against2
Goal Difference0
Points2
Points / Game1.00
Win Rate0.0%
GD / Game0.00
Calculation: Recency-weighted goals scored and conceded, separate home/away performance, league scoring baseline, sample-size shrinkage and home advantage feed a Poisson score model. Fair odds are compared with bookmaker odds to calculate expected value.
Home Probability45.21%
Draw Probability22.28%
Away Probability32.51%
Historical evidence

Comparable-odds performance

Completed matches where the same market traded within the selected odds range.

2.20 — 2.50
Wins967
Losses1,033
Voids / Draws0
Avg. Goals3.21
Historical data is descriptive. Small samples may produce unstable percentages, and missing odds or scores are excluded.
Team form

Recent completed matches

Only the recent completed matches of the two teams in this analysis are shown.

6 each
Bayern Munich WLast 6 completed
28 Oct Bayern Munich W 1 – 2 Real Madrid W
23 Oct RB Leipzig W 1 – 5 Bayern Munich W
20 Oct Bayern Munich W 5 – 0 Stuttgart W
03 Oct Eintracht Frankfurt W 0 – 1 Bayern Munich W
30 Sep SL Benfica W 0 – 3 Bayern Munich W
27 Sep B. Monchengladbach W 1 – 2 Bayern Munich W
Real Madrid WLast 6 completed
28 Oct Bayern Munich W 1 – 2 Real Madrid W
24 Oct Real Madrid W 3 – 2 Costa Adeje Tenerife W
17 Oct Real Madrid W 3 – 1 Espanyol W
04 Oct Barcelona W 7 – 0 Real Madrid W
01 Oct Manchester City W 1 – 1 Real Madrid W
26 Sep Real Sociedad W 3 – 5 Real Madrid W