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Match Centre NETHERLANDS - Divisie 1 U21 - Fall Season Analysis
SOCCERTAB ANALYSIS
NETHERLANDS flag NETHERLANDS - Divisie 1 U21 - Fall Season • 27 Oct 2026

Graafschap U21

HOME
12:00
VS
MATCH PREVIEW

Feyenoord U21

AWAY
Selected market
Double Chance X2
1.15
Current bookmaker price
Expected Value-5.62%Vs form-based fair odds
Historical Sample2,000Comparable odds records
Historical Hit Rate67.8%Wins among decided matches
Historical ROI-19.91%Flat 1-unit calculation
Probability model

1X2 probability distribution

Bookmaker odds and their normalized 1X2 probabilities.

100% normalized
Home WinOdds 4.45
20.5%
DrawOdds 4.15
21.9%
Away WinOdds 1.58
57.6%
The displayed 1X2 probabilities show the bookmaker market. Expected value is calculated separately against the shared recent-form Poisson model, using only completed matches before kickoff.
Market scanner

All available markets

Compare each current bookmaker odd with the fair price from the shared recent-form model.

MarketCurrent OddsFair OddsValue
1Home Win
 4.45 5.43 -18.02%
XDraw
 4.15 4.52 -8.20%
2Away Win
 1.58 1.68 -6.06%
1XDouble Chance 1X
 2.15 2.47 -12.83%
12Double Chance 12
 1.15 1.28 -10.44%
X2Double Chance X2
 1.15 1.23 -6.19% Selected
DNB1Draw No Bet 1
 3.57 4.23 -15.55%
DNB2Draw No Bet 2
 1.27 1.31 -3.04%
Comparative form

Common-opponent evidence

How both teams performed against the same league opponents before this fixture.

2 shared opponents
Evidence overview

Common-opponent evidence is level

Based on 2 shared opponents. Historical comparison only; it does not guarantee the result.
Graafschap U21
Points earned6
Goal difference+3
Odds performance 1.00
Feyenoord U21
Points earned6
Goal difference+3
Odds performance 1.00
Match-by-match comparisonMost recent completed result against each shared opponent
Win Draw Loss
Shared opponentGraafschap U21Feyenoord U21
Willem II U21
2–0
WinAway · 19 Sep 2026
3 pts
3–2
WinAway · 13 Sep 2026
3 pts
Cambuur U21
1–0
WinHome · 12 Sep 2026
3 pts
2–0
WinHome · 24 Oct 2026
3 pts
League strength

Recent-form Poisson model

Recent completed results, venue-specific scoring and goals conceded estimate fair probabilities. The strongest 1X2 outcome is selected first, then the highest expected-value eligible market is identified.

FORM MODEL

Graafschap U21

Position#5
Played8
Wins3
Draws1
Losses4
Goals For8
Goals Against11
Goal Difference-3
Points10
Points / Game1.25
Win Rate37.5%
GD / Game-0.38

Feyenoord U21

Position#1
Played7
Wins7
Draws0
Losses0
Goals For24
Goals Against4
Goal Difference20
Points21
Points / Game3.00
Win Rate100.0%
GD / Game2.86
Calculation: Recency-weighted goals scored and conceded, separate home/away performance, league scoring baseline, sample-size shrinkage and home advantage feed a Poisson score model. Fair odds are compared with bookmaker odds to calculate expected value.
Home Probability18.42%
Draw Probability22.12%
Away Probability59.46%
Historical evidence

Comparable-odds performance

Completed matches where the same market traded within the selected odds range.

1.01 — 1.30
Wins1,356
Losses644
Voids / Draws0
Avg. Goals3.15
Historical data is descriptive. Small samples may produce unstable percentages, and missing odds or scores are excluded.
Team form

Recent completed matches

Only the recent completed matches of the two teams in this analysis are shown.

6 each
Graafschap U21Last 6 completed
24 Oct FC Twente/Heracles U21 1 – 1 Graafschap U21
17 Oct Feyenoord U21 4 – 0 Graafschap U21
10 Oct Graafschap U21 0 – 1 G.A. Eagles U21
26 Sep Graafschap U21 0 – 2 FC Twente/Heracles U21
25 Sep Graafschap U21 0 – 2 FC Twente/Heracles U21
19 Sep Willem II U21 0 – 2 Graafschap U21
Feyenoord U21Last 6 completed
24 Oct Feyenoord U21 2 – 0 Cambuur U21
17 Oct Feyenoord U21 4 – 0 Graafschap U21
10 Oct Groningen U21 1 – 4 Feyenoord U21
19 Sep Feyenoord U21 4 – 0 Zwolle U21
13 Sep Willem II U21 2 – 3 Feyenoord U21