TUNISIA - Ligue 2
•
27 Oct 2026
Stade Gabesien
HOME 13:30
VS
MATCH PREVIEW
Korba
AWAYSelected market
Draw
2.78
Current bookmaker price
Expected Value0.75%Vs form-based fair odds
Historical Sample2,000Comparable odds records
Historical Hit Rate27.2%Wins among decided matches
Historical ROI-23.30%Flat 1-unit calculation
Probability model
1X2 probability distribution
Bookmaker odds and their normalized 1X2 probabilities.
100% normalized
Home WinOdds 1.88
48.0%DrawOdds 2.78
32.4%Away WinOdds 4.61
19.6% The displayed 1X2 probabilities show the bookmaker market. Expected value is calculated separately against the shared recent-form Poisson model, using only completed matches before kickoff.
Market scanner
All available markets
Compare each current bookmaker odd with the fair price from the shared recent-form model.
| Market | Current Odds | Fair Odds | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
1Home Win |
1.88 | 2.50 | -24.77% | |
XDraw |
2.78 | 2.76 | +0.75% | Selected |
2Away Win |
4.61 | 4.21 | +9.46% | |
1XDouble Chance 1X |
1.10 | 1.31 | -16.12% | |
12Double Chance 12 |
1.35 | 1.57 | -13.92% | |
X2Double Chance X2 |
1.75 | 1.67 | +4.97% | |
DNB1Draw No Bet 1 |
1.32 | 1.59 | -17.15% | |
DNB2Draw No Bet 2 |
3.23 | 2.69 | +20.28% |
League strength
Recent-form Poisson model
Recent completed results, venue-specific scoring and goals conceded estimate fair probabilities. The strongest 1X2 outcome is selected first, then the highest expected-value eligible market is identified.
FORM MODEL
Stade Gabesien
| Position | #41 |
| Played | 4 |
| Wins | 1 |
| Draws | 2 |
| Losses | 1 |
| Goals For | 3 |
| Goals Against | 3 |
| Goal Difference | 0 |
| Points | 5 |
| Points / Game | 1.25 |
| Win Rate | 25.0% |
| GD / Game | 0.00 |
Korba
| Position | #31 |
| Played | 4 |
| Wins | 3 |
| Draws | 0 |
| Losses | 1 |
| Goals For | 6 |
| Goals Against | 2 |
| Goal Difference | 4 |
| Points | 9 |
| Points / Game | 2.25 |
| Win Rate | 75.0% |
| GD / Game | 1.00 |
Calculation: Recency-weighted goals scored and conceded, separate home/away performance, league scoring baseline, sample-size shrinkage and home advantage feed a Poisson score model. Fair odds are compared with bookmaker odds to calculate expected value.
Home Probability40.02%
Draw Probability36.24%
Away Probability23.74%
Historical evidence
Comparable-odds performance
Completed matches where the same market traded within the selected odds range.
2.63 — 2.93
Wins544
Losses1,456
Voids / Draws0
Avg. Goals2.75
Historical data is descriptive. Small samples may produce unstable percentages, and missing odds or scores are excluded.
Team form
Recent completed matches
Only the recent completed matches of the two teams in this analysis are shown.
6 each
Stade GabesienLast 6 completed
20 Oct
Stade Gabesien
1 – 0
Redeyef
11 Oct
Bouchamma
2 – 1
Stade Gabesien
04 Oct
Stade Gabesien
0 – 0
Moknine
27 Sep
Ariana
1 – 1
Stade Gabesien
KorbaLast 6 completed
20 Oct
Korba
2 – 1
Olympique Kef
10 Oct
Redeyef
0 – 1
Korba
04 Oct
Korba
3 – 0
EGS Gafsa
27 Sep
Bouchamma
1 – 0
Korba