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Match Centre TUNISIA - Ligue 2 Analysis
SOCCERTAB ANALYSIS
TUNISIA flag TUNISIA - Ligue 2 • 27 Oct 2026

JS Kairouan

HOME
13:30
VS
MATCH PREVIEW

EGS Gafsa

AWAY
Selected market
Draw
3.74
Current bookmaker price
Expected Value-7.35%Vs form-based fair odds
Historical Sample2,000Comparable odds records
Historical Hit Rate25.1%Wins among decided matches
Historical ROI-6.91%Flat 1-unit calculation
Probability model

1X2 probability distribution

Bookmaker odds and their normalized 1X2 probabilities.

100% normalized
Home WinOdds 1.47
61.4%
DrawOdds 3.74
24.1%
Away WinOdds 6.21
14.5%
The displayed 1X2 probabilities show the bookmaker market. Expected value is calculated separately against the shared recent-form Poisson model, using only completed matches before kickoff.
Market scanner

All available markets

Compare each current bookmaker odd with the fair price from the shared recent-form model.

MarketCurrent OddsFair OddsValue
1Home Win
 1.47 1.84 -20.07%
XDraw
 3.74 4.04 -7.35% Selected
2Away Win
 6.21 4.79 +29.51%
1XDouble Chance 1X
 1.05 1.26 -16.90%
12Double Chance 12
 1.20 1.33 -9.73%
X2Double Chance X2
 2.35 2.19 +7.23%
DNB1Draw No Bet 1
 1.16 1.38 -16.16%
DNB2Draw No Bet 2
 4.88 3.61 +35.29%
League strength

Recent-form Poisson model

Recent completed results, venue-specific scoring and goals conceded estimate fair probabilities. The strongest 1X2 outcome is selected first, then the highest expected-value eligible market is identified.

FORM MODEL

JS Kairouan

Position#39
Played4
Wins2
Draws0
Losses2
Goals For2
Goals Against2
Goal Difference0
Points6
Points / Game1.50
Win Rate50.0%
GD / Game0.00

EGS Gafsa

Position#37
Played4
Wins2
Draws0
Losses2
Goals For7
Goals Against6
Goal Difference1
Points6
Points / Game1.50
Win Rate50.0%
GD / Game0.25
Calculation: Recency-weighted goals scored and conceded, separate home/away performance, league scoring baseline, sample-size shrinkage and home advantage feed a Poisson score model. Fair odds are compared with bookmaker odds to calculate expected value.
Home Probability54.37%
Draw Probability24.77%
Away Probability20.86%
Historical evidence

Comparable-odds performance

Completed matches where the same market traded within the selected odds range.

3.59 — 3.89
Wins501
Losses1,499
Voids / Draws0
Avg. Goals3.21
Historical data is descriptive. Small samples may produce unstable percentages, and missing odds or scores are excluded.
Team form

Recent completed matches

Only the recent completed matches of the two teams in this analysis are shown.

6 each
JS KairouanLast 6 completed
20 Oct Kasserine 1 – 0 JS Kairouan
11 Oct JS Kairouan 0 – 1 Ksour Essef
04 Oct Kalaa 0 – 1 JS Kairouan
27 Sep JS Kairouan 1 – 0 Jendouba Sport
EGS GafsaLast 6 completed
20 Oct EGS Gafsa 3 – 0 CO Medenine
11 Oct Olympique Kef 3 – 2 EGS Gafsa
04 Oct Korba 3 – 0 EGS Gafsa
27 Sep EGS Gafsa 1 – 2 Kasserine