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Match Centre UGANDA - Premier League Analysis
SOCCERTAB ANALYSIS
UGANDA flag UGANDA - Premier League • 28 Oct 2026

Mbarara City

HOME
77'
1:0
Live

Vipers

AWAY
Selected market
Draw No Bet 2
1.29
Current bookmaker price
Expected Value1.29%Vs form-based fair odds
Historical Sample2,000Comparable odds records
Historical Hit Rate56.2%Wins among decided matches
Historical ROI-21.59%Flat 1-unit calculation
Probability model

1X2 probability distribution

Bookmaker odds and their normalized 1X2 probabilities.

100% normalized
Home WinOdds 4.47
20.7%
DrawOdds 3.71
24.9%
Away WinOdds 1.70
54.4%
The displayed 1X2 probabilities show the bookmaker market. Expected value is calculated separately against the shared recent-form Poisson model, using only completed matches before kickoff.
Market scanner

All available markets

Compare each current bookmaker odd with the fair price from the shared recent-form model.

MarketCurrent OddsFair OddsValue
1Home Win
 4.47 6.38 -29.96%
XDraw
 3.71 3.70 +0.35%
2Away Win
 1.70 1.75 -2.62%
1XDouble Chance 1X
 2.05 2.34 -12.43%
12Double Chance 12
 1.25 1.37 -8.81%
X2Double Chance X2
 1.15 1.19 -3.02%
DNB1Draw No Bet 1
 3.39 4.66 -27.18%
DNB2Draw No Bet 2
 1.29 1.27 +1.29% Selected
Comparative form

Common-opponent evidence

How both teams performed against the same league opponents before this fixture.

2 shared opponents
Evidence overview

Away team performed better by 50.0%

Based on 2 shared opponents. Historical comparison only; it does not guarantee the result.
Mbarara City
Points earned3
Goal difference0
Odds performance 2.00
Vipers
Points earned6
Goal difference+7
Odds performance 1.00
Match-by-match comparisonMost recent completed result against each shared opponent
Win Draw Loss
Shared opponentMbarara CityVipers
Blacks Power
2–1
WinHome · 11 Oct 2026
3 pts
4–0
WinAway · 08 Oct 2026
3 pts
Ntugasaze
0–1
LossAway · 07 Oct 2026
0 pts
3–0
WinHome · 19 Sep 2026
3 pts
League strength

Recent-form Poisson model

Recent completed results, venue-specific scoring and goals conceded estimate fair probabilities. The strongest 1X2 outcome is selected first, then the highest expected-value eligible market is identified.

FORM MODEL

Mbarara City

Position#15
Played6
Wins1
Draws2
Losses3
Goals For2
Goals Against5
Goal Difference-3
Points5
Points / Game0.83
Win Rate16.7%
GD / Game-0.50

Vipers

Position#6
Played6
Wins3
Draws2
Losses1
Goals For13
Goals Against2
Goal Difference11
Points11
Points / Game1.83
Win Rate50.0%
GD / Game1.83
Calculation: Recency-weighted goals scored and conceded, separate home/away performance, league scoring baseline, sample-size shrinkage and home advantage feed a Poisson score model. Fair odds are compared with bookmaker odds to calculate expected value.
Home Probability15.67%
Draw Probability27.05%
Away Probability57.28%
Historical evidence

Comparable-odds performance

Completed matches where the same market traded within the selected odds range.

1.14 — 1.44
Wins871
Losses678
Voids / Draws451
Avg. Goals3.25
Historical data is descriptive. Small samples may produce unstable percentages, and missing odds or scores are excluded.
Team form

Recent completed matches

Only the recent completed matches of the two teams in this analysis are shown.

6 each
Mbarara CityLast 6 completed
28 Oct Mbarara City 1 – 0 Vipers
22 Oct Villa 2 – 0 Mbarara City
11 Oct Mbarara City 2 – 1 Blacks Power
07 Oct Ntugasaze 1 – 0 Mbarara City
16 Sep Mbarara City 0 – 0 Entebbe UPPC
11 Sep Mbarara City 0 – 0 NEC FC
VipersLast 6 completed
28 Oct Mbarara City 1 – 0 Vipers
23 Oct Vipers 0 – 0 Police
15 Oct Kataka 0 – 5 Vipers
11 Oct Vipers 1 – 1 Maroons
08 Oct Blacks Power 0 – 4 Vipers
19 Sep Vipers 3 – 0 Ntugasaze