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Match Centre UGANDA - Premier League Analysis
SOCCERTAB ANALYSIS
UGANDA flag UGANDA - Premier League • 27 Oct 2026

NEC FC

HOME
13:00
5:1
Finished

Ntugasaze

AWAY
Selected market
Draw No Bet 2
9.73
Current bookmaker price
Expected Value87.26%Vs form-based fair odds
Historical Sample60Comparable odds records
Historical Hit Rate26.5%Wins among decided matches
Historical ROI130.20%Flat 1-unit calculation
Probability model

1X2 probability distribution

Bookmaker odds and their normalized 1X2 probabilities.

100% normalized
Home WinOdds 1.18
78.5%
DrawOdds 7.06
13.1%
Away WinOdds 11.10
8.3%
The displayed 1X2 probabilities show the bookmaker market. Expected value is calculated separately against the shared recent-form Poisson model, using only completed matches before kickoff.
Market scanner

All available markets

Compare each current bookmaker odd with the fair price from the shared recent-form model.

MarketCurrent OddsFair OddsValue
1Home Win
 1.18 1.47 -19.75%
XDraw
 7.06 5.22 +35.20%
2Away Win
 11.10 7.79 +42.54%
1XDouble Chance 1X
 1.00 1.15 -12.84%
12Double Chance 12
 1.05 1.24 -15.11%
X2Double Chance X2
 4.30 3.13 +37.56%
DNB1Draw No Bet 1
 1.03 1.19 -13.36%
DNB2Draw No Bet 2
 9.73 6.30 +54.54% Selected
Comparative form

Common-opponent evidence

How both teams performed against the same league opponents before this fixture.

2 shared opponents
Evidence overview

Away team performed better by 33.3%

Based on 2 shared opponents. Historical comparison only; it does not guarantee the result.
NEC FC
Points earned1
Goal difference-1
Odds performance 6.00
Ntugasaze
Points earned3
Goal difference-2
Odds performance 2.00
Match-by-match comparisonMost recent completed result against each shared opponent
Win Draw Loss
Shared opponentNEC FCNtugasaze
BUL
1–2
LossAway · 21 Oct 2026
0 pts
1–4
LossAway · 08 Sep 2026
0 pts
Mbarara City
0–0
DrawAway · 11 Sep 2026
1 pts
1–0
WinHome · 07 Oct 2026
3 pts
League strength

Recent-form Poisson model

Recent completed results, venue-specific scoring and goals conceded estimate fair probabilities. The strongest 1X2 outcome is selected first, then the highest expected-value eligible market is identified.

FORM MODEL

NEC FC

Position#3
Played8
Wins5
Draws2
Losses1
Goals For17
Goals Against5
Goal Difference12
Points17
Points / Game2.13
Win Rate62.5%
GD / Game1.50

Ntugasaze

Position#17
Played7
Wins1
Draws0
Losses6
Goals For4
Goals Against18
Goal Difference-14
Points3
Points / Game0.43
Win Rate14.3%
GD / Game-2.00
Calculation: Recency-weighted goals scored and conceded, separate home/away performance, league scoring baseline, sample-size shrinkage and home advantage feed a Poisson score model. Fair odds are compared with bookmaker odds to calculate expected value.
Home Probability68.01%
Draw Probability19.15%
Away Probability12.84%
Historical evidence

Comparable-odds performance

Completed matches where the same market traded within the selected odds range.

9.58 — 9.88
Wins13
Losses36
Voids / Draws11
Avg. Goals3.62
Historical data is descriptive. Small samples may produce unstable percentages, and missing odds or scores are excluded.
Team form

Recent completed matches

Only the recent completed matches of the two teams in this analysis are shown.

6 each
NEC FCLast 6 completed
27 Oct NEC FC 5 – 1 Ntugasaze
21 Oct BUL 2 – 1 NEC FC
14 Oct Kigezi HomeBoyz 0 – 2 NEC FC
08 Oct NEC FC 0 – 0 Express
15 Sep NEC FC 4 – 1 URA SC
11 Sep Mbarara City 0 – 0 NEC FC
NtugasazeLast 6 completed
27 Oct NEC FC 5 – 1 Ntugasaze
13 Oct Ntugasaze 0 – 2 Kampala City
07 Oct Ntugasaze 1 – 0 Mbarara City
19 Sep Vipers 3 – 0 Ntugasaze
08 Sep BUL 4 – 1 Ntugasaze