⚽SoccerTab
Log in
Back to predictions
Match Centre TAJIKISTAN - Vysshaya Liga Analysis
SOCCERTAB ANALYSIS
TAJIKISTAN flag TAJIKISTAN - Vysshaya Liga • 27 Oct 2026

Ravshan

HOME
12:00
1:0
Finished

Khujand

AWAY
Selected market
Draw No Bet 2
1.72
Current bookmaker price
Expected Value-15.73%Vs form-based fair odds
Historical Sample2,000Comparable odds records
Historical Hit Rate47.1%Wins among decided matches
Historical ROI-14.12%Flat 1-unit calculation
Probability model

1X2 probability distribution

Bookmaker odds and their normalized 1X2 probabilities.

100% normalized
Home WinOdds 2.18
36.9%
DrawOdds 4.20
19.2%
Away WinOdds 1.83
44.0%
The displayed 1X2 probabilities show the bookmaker market. Expected value is calculated separately against the shared recent-form Poisson model, using only completed matches before kickoff.
Market scanner

All available markets

Compare each current bookmaker odd with the fair price from the shared recent-form model.

MarketCurrent OddsFair OddsValue
1Home Win
 2.18 2.98 -26.73%
XDraw
 4.20 3.42 +22.72%
2Away Win
 1.83 2.69 -31.97%
1XDouble Chance 1X
 1.45 1.59 -8.90%
12Double Chance 12
 1.00 1.41 -29.22%
X2Double Chance X2
 1.25 1.51 -17.01%
DNB1Draw No Bet 1
 2.05 2.11 -2.66%
DNB2Draw No Bet 2
 1.72 1.90 -9.67% Selected
Comparative form

Common-opponent evidence

How both teams performed against the same league opponents before this fixture.

1 shared opponent
Evidence overview

Away team performed better by 100.0%

Based on 1 shared opponent. Historical comparison only; it does not guarantee the result.
Ravshan
Points earned0
Goal difference-1
Odds performance N/A
Khujand
Points earned3
Goal difference+1
Odds performance 1.00
Match-by-match comparisonMost recent completed result against each shared opponent
Win Draw Loss
Shared opponentRavshanKhujand
Parvoz-Aeroport Khujand
2–3
LossHome · 08 Sep 2026
0 pts
1–0
WinAway · 09 Oct 2026
3 pts
League strength

Recent-form Poisson model

Recent completed results, venue-specific scoring and goals conceded estimate fair probabilities. The strongest 1X2 outcome is selected first, then the highest expected-value eligible market is identified.

FORM MODEL

Ravshan

Position#4
Played20
Wins8
Draws5
Losses7
Goals For26
Goals Against20
Goal Difference6
Points29
Points / Game1.45
Win Rate40.0%
GD / Game0.30

Khujand

Position#6
Played18
Wins7
Draws6
Losses5
Goals For16
Goals Against12
Goal Difference4
Points27
Points / Game1.50
Win Rate38.9%
GD / Game0.22
Calculation: Recency-weighted goals scored and conceded, separate home/away performance, league scoring baseline, sample-size shrinkage and home advantage feed a Poisson score model. Fair odds are compared with bookmaker odds to calculate expected value.
Home Probability33.61%
Draw Probability29.22%
Away Probability37.17%
Historical evidence

Comparable-odds performance

Completed matches where the same market traded within the selected odds range.

1.57 — 1.87
Wins698
Losses783
Voids / Draws519
Avg. Goals2.98
Historical data is descriptive. Small samples may produce unstable percentages, and missing odds or scores are excluded.
Team form

Recent completed matches

Only the recent completed matches of the two teams in this analysis are shown.

6 each
RavshanLast 6 completed
27 Oct Ravshan 1 – 0 Khujand
20 Oct Istaravshan 0 – 1 Ravshan
11 Oct Ravshan 1 – 1 Khosilot Parkhar
14 Sep CSKA Pomir Dushanbe 0 – 3 Ravshan
08 Sep Ravshan 2 – 3 Parvoz-Aeroport Khujand
KhujandLast 6 completed
27 Oct Ravshan 1 – 0 Khujand
09 Oct Parvoz-Aeroport Khujand 0 – 1 Khujand
15 Sep Khujand 1 – 0 Istiqlol Dushanbe
08 Sep Regar-TadAZ 0 – 0 Khujand