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Match Centre NETHERLANDS - Divisie 1 U21 - Fall Season Analysis
SOCCERTAB ANALYSIS
NETHERLANDS flag NETHERLANDS - Divisie 1 U21 - Fall Season • 27 Oct 2026

FC Twente/Heracles U21

HOME
11:30
0:1
Finished

Zwolle U21

AWAY
Selected market
Draw No Bet 2
2.46
Current bookmaker price
Expected Value23.27%Vs form-based fair odds
Historical Sample2,000Comparable odds records
Historical Hit Rate40.7%Wins among decided matches
Historical ROI-0.18%Flat 1-unit calculation
Probability model

1X2 probability distribution

Bookmaker odds and their normalized 1X2 probabilities.

100% normalized
Home WinOdds 1.90
48.7%
DrawOdds 4.32
21.4%
Away WinOdds 3.09
29.9%
The displayed 1X2 probabilities show the bookmaker market. Expected value is calculated separately against the shared recent-form Poisson model, using only completed matches before kickoff.
Market scanner

All available markets

Compare each current bookmaker odd with the fair price from the shared recent-form model.

MarketCurrent OddsFair OddsValue
1Home Win
 1.90 2.79 -31.82%
XDraw
 4.32 4.41 -2.06%
2Away Win
 3.09 2.41 +28.07%
1XDouble Chance 1X
 1.30 1.71 -23.88%
12Double Chance 12
 1.20 1.29 -7.21%
X2Double Chance X2
 1.80 1.56 +15.41%
DNB1Draw No Bet 1
 1.51 2.16 -29.93%
DNB2Draw No Bet 2
 2.46 1.87 +31.85% Selected
Comparative form

Common-opponent evidence

How both teams performed against the same league opponents before this fixture.

2 shared opponents
Evidence overview

Away team performed better by 33.3%

Based on 2 shared opponents. Historical comparison only; it does not guarantee the result.
FC Twente/Heracles U21
Points earned1
Goal difference-3
Odds performance 6.00
Zwolle U21
Points earned3
Goal difference0
Odds performance 2.00
Match-by-match comparisonMost recent completed result against each shared opponent
Win Draw Loss
Shared opponentFC Twente/Heracles U21Zwolle U21
Cambuur U21
1–4
LossHome · 19 Sep 2026
0 pts
0–1
LossHome · 10 Oct 2026
0 pts
G.A. Eagles U21
1–1
DrawAway · 12 Sep 2026
1 pts
2–1
WinAway · 24 Oct 2026
3 pts
League strength

Recent-form Poisson model

Recent completed results, venue-specific scoring and goals conceded estimate fair probabilities. The strongest 1X2 outcome is selected first, then the highest expected-value eligible market is identified.

FORM MODEL

FC Twente/Heracles U21

Position#6
Played8
Wins2
Draws2
Losses4
Goals For8
Goals Against15
Goal Difference-7
Points8
Points / Game1.00
Win Rate25.0%
GD / Game-0.88

Zwolle U21

Position#2
Played8
Wins5
Draws0
Losses3
Goals For10
Goals Against9
Goal Difference1
Points15
Points / Game1.88
Win Rate62.5%
GD / Game0.13
Calculation: Recency-weighted goals scored and conceded, separate home/away performance, league scoring baseline, sample-size shrinkage and home advantage feed a Poisson score model. Fair odds are compared with bookmaker odds to calculate expected value.
Home Probability35.88%
Draw Probability22.67%
Away Probability41.45%
Historical evidence

Comparable-odds performance

Completed matches where the same market traded within the selected odds range.

2.31 — 2.61
Wins616
Losses896
Voids / Draws488
Avg. Goals3.00
Historical data is descriptive. Small samples may produce unstable percentages, and missing odds or scores are excluded.
Team form

Recent completed matches

Only the recent completed matches of the two teams in this analysis are shown.

6 each
FC Twente/Heracles U21Last 6 completed
27 Oct FC Twente/Heracles U21 0 – 1 Zwolle U21
24 Oct FC Twente/Heracles U21 1 – 1 Graafschap U21
10 Oct Willem II U21 1 – 3 FC Twente/Heracles U21
26 Sep Graafschap U21 0 – 2 FC Twente/Heracles U21
25 Sep Graafschap U21 0 – 2 FC Twente/Heracles U21
19 Sep FC Twente/Heracles U21 1 – 4 Cambuur U21
Zwolle U21Last 6 completed
27 Oct FC Twente/Heracles U21 0 – 1 Zwolle U21
24 Oct G.A. Eagles U21 1 – 2 Zwolle U21
10 Oct Zwolle U21 0 – 1 Cambuur U21
26 Sep Zwolle U21 2 – 0 G.A. Eagles U21
19 Sep Feyenoord U21 4 – 0 Zwolle U21
12 Sep Groningen U21 0 – 3 Zwolle U21