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Match Centre KYRGYZSTAN - Premier Liga Analysis
SOCCERTAB ANALYSIS
KYRGYZSTAN flag KYRGYZSTAN - Premier Liga • 27 Oct 2026

Bars

HOME
13:00
3:0
Finished

Toktogul

AWAY
Selected market
Draw No Bet 2
7.19
Current bookmaker price
Expected Value30.62%Vs form-based fair odds
Historical Sample170Comparable odds records
Historical Hit Rate25.4%Wins among decided matches
Historical ROI61.16%Flat 1-unit calculation
Probability model

1X2 probability distribution

Bookmaker odds and their normalized 1X2 probabilities.

100% normalized
Home WinOdds 1.24
72.6%
DrawOdds 5.44
16.5%
Away WinOdds 8.30
10.8%
The displayed 1X2 probabilities show the bookmaker market. Expected value is calculated separately against the shared recent-form Poisson model, using only completed matches before kickoff.
Market scanner

All available markets

Compare each current bookmaker odd with the fair price from the shared recent-form model.

MarketCurrent OddsFair OddsValue
1Home Win
 1.24 1.49 -16.78%
XDraw
 5.44 5.40 +0.77%
2Away Win
 8.30 6.96 +19.23%
1XDouble Chance 1X
 1.00 1.17 -14.36%
12Double Chance 12
 1.10 1.23 -10.38%
X2Double Chance X2
 3.30 3.04 +8.53%
DNB1Draw No Bet 1
 1.07 1.21 -11.86%
DNB2Draw No Bet 2
 7.19 5.67 +26.76% Selected
Comparative form

Common-opponent evidence

How both teams performed against the same league opponents before this fixture.

1 shared opponent
Evidence overview

Away team has the better goal difference

Based on 1 shared opponent. Historical comparison only; it does not guarantee the result.
Bars
Points earned3
Goal difference+1
Odds performance 1.00
Toktogul
Points earned3
Goal difference+2
Odds performance 1.00
Match-by-match comparisonMost recent completed result against each shared opponent
Win Draw Loss
Shared opponentBarsToktogul
Abdysh-Ata
1–0
WinHome · 21 Oct 2026
3 pts
2–0
WinHome · 15 Oct 2026
3 pts
League strength

Recent-form Poisson model

Recent completed results, venue-specific scoring and goals conceded estimate fair probabilities. The strongest 1X2 outcome is selected first, then the highest expected-value eligible market is identified.

FORM MODEL

Bars

Position#1
Played28
Wins20
Draws4
Losses4
Goals For77
Goals Against34
Goal Difference43
Points64
Points / Game2.29
Win Rate71.4%
GD / Game1.54

Toktogul

Position#10
Played27
Wins9
Draws4
Losses14
Goals For30
Goals Against43
Goal Difference-13
Points31
Points / Game1.15
Win Rate33.3%
GD / Game-0.48
Calculation: Recency-weighted goals scored and conceded, separate home/away performance, league scoring baseline, sample-size shrinkage and home advantage feed a Poisson score model. Fair odds are compared with bookmaker odds to calculate expected value.
Home Probability67.11%
Draw Probability18.52%
Away Probability14.36%
Historical evidence

Comparable-odds performance

Completed matches where the same market traded within the selected odds range.

7.04 — 7.34
Wins32
Losses94
Voids / Draws44
Avg. Goals3.21
Historical data is descriptive. Small samples may produce unstable percentages, and missing odds or scores are excluded.
Team form

Recent completed matches

Only the recent completed matches of the two teams in this analysis are shown.

6 each
BarsLast 6 completed
27 Oct Bars 3 – 0 Toktogul
21 Oct Bars 1 – 0 Abdysh-Ata
16 Oct Bars 2 – 1 Dordoi Bishkek
12 Oct Ozgon 1 – 3 Bars
08 Oct Ilbirs 0 – 3 Bars
18 Sep Bars 2 – 1 Aldier
ToktogulLast 6 completed
27 Oct Bars 3 – 0 Toktogul
20 Oct Neftchi Kochkor-Ata 3 – 2 Toktogul
15 Oct Toktogul 2 – 0 Abdysh-Ata
09 Oct Asia Talas 2 – 0 Toktogul