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Match Centre ETHIOPIA - Premier League Analysis
SOCCERTAB ANALYSIS
ETHIOPIA flag ETHIOPIA - Premier League • 27 Oct 2026

Ethiopian Insurance

HOME
12:00
1:3
Finished

Mechal

AWAY
Selected market
Draw No Bet 2
1.73
Current bookmaker price
Expected Value1.32%Vs form-based fair odds
Historical Sample2,000Comparable odds records
Historical Hit Rate46.5%Wins among decided matches
Historical ROI-14.21%Flat 1-unit calculation
Probability model

1X2 probability distribution

Bookmaker odds and their normalized 1X2 probabilities.

100% normalized
Home WinOdds 2.99
31.2%
DrawOdds 2.91
32.1%
Away WinOdds 2.55
36.6%
The displayed 1X2 probabilities show the bookmaker market. Expected value is calculated separately against the shared recent-form Poisson model, using only completed matches before kickoff.
Market scanner

All available markets

Compare each current bookmaker odd with the fair price from the shared recent-form model.

MarketCurrent OddsFair OddsValue
1Home Win
 2.99 3.90 -23.34%
XDraw
 2.91 2.83 +3.01%
2Away Win
 2.55 2.57 -0.65%
1XDouble Chance 1X
 1.45 1.64 -11.50%
12Double Chance 12
 1.40 1.55 -9.56%
X2Double Chance X2
 1.35 1.34 +0.39%
DNB1Draw No Bet 1
 2.03 2.52 -19.43%
DNB2Draw No Bet 2
 1.73 1.66 +4.34% Selected
Comparative form

Common-opponent evidence

How both teams performed against the same league opponents before this fixture.

2 shared opponents
Evidence overview

Away team performed better by 33.3%

Based on 2 shared opponents. Historical comparison only; it does not guarantee the result.
Ethiopian Insurance
Points earned4
Goal difference+2
Odds performance 1.50
Mechal
Points earned6
Goal difference+2
Odds performance 1.00
Match-by-match comparisonMost recent completed result against each shared opponent
Win Draw Loss
Shared opponentEthiopian InsuranceMechal
Hawassa
1–1
DrawAway · 17 Oct 2026
1 pts
1–0
WinAway · 11 Oct 2026
3 pts
Gamo Chencha
2–0
WinAway · 11 Oct 2026
3 pts
1–0
WinAway · 22 Oct 2026
3 pts
League strength

Recent-form Poisson model

Recent completed results, venue-specific scoring and goals conceded estimate fair probabilities. The strongest 1X2 outcome is selected first, then the highest expected-value eligible market is identified.

FORM MODEL

Ethiopian Insurance

Position#10
Played3
Wins1
Draws1
Losses1
Goals For4
Goals Against4
Goal Difference0
Points4
Points / Game1.33
Win Rate33.3%
GD / Game0.00

Mechal

Position#1
Played4
Wins3
Draws0
Losses1
Goals For5
Goals Against2
Goal Difference3
Points9
Points / Game2.25
Win Rate75.0%
GD / Game0.75
Calculation: Recency-weighted goals scored and conceded, separate home/away performance, league scoring baseline, sample-size shrinkage and home advantage feed a Poisson score model. Fair odds are compared with bookmaker odds to calculate expected value.
Home Probability25.64%
Draw Probability35.40%
Away Probability38.96%
Historical evidence

Comparable-odds performance

Completed matches where the same market traded within the selected odds range.

1.58 — 1.88
Wins684
Losses787
Voids / Draws529
Avg. Goals2.94
Historical data is descriptive. Small samples may produce unstable percentages, and missing odds or scores are excluded.
Team form

Recent completed matches

Only the recent completed matches of the two teams in this analysis are shown.

6 each
Ethiopian InsuranceLast 6 completed
27 Oct Ethiopian Insurance 1 – 3 Mechal
17 Oct Hawassa 1 – 1 Ethiopian Insurance
11 Oct Gamo Chencha 0 – 2 Ethiopian Insurance
MechalLast 6 completed
27 Oct Ethiopian Insurance 1 – 3 Mechal
22 Oct Gamo Chencha 0 – 1 Mechal
18 Oct Mechal 0 – 1 Ethiopia Nigd Bank
11 Oct Hawassa 0 – 1 Mechal