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Match Centre CANADA - NSL Women Analysis
SOCCERTAB ANALYSIS
CANADA flag CANADA - NSL Women • 27 Oct 2026

AFC Toronto W

HOME
00:00
1:1
Finished

Halifax Tides W

AWAY
Selected market
Draw No Bet 2
2.86
Current bookmaker price
Expected Value14.38%Vs form-based fair odds
Historical Sample1,590Comparable odds records
Historical Hit Rate35.2%Wins among decided matches
Historical ROI1.09%Flat 1-unit calculation
Probability model

1X2 probability distribution

Bookmaker odds and their normalized 1X2 probabilities.

100% normalized
Home WinOdds 1.81
51.2%
DrawOdds 3.87
23.9%
Away WinOdds 3.72
24.9%
The displayed 1X2 probabilities show the bookmaker market. Expected value is calculated separately against the shared recent-form Poisson model, using only completed matches before kickoff.
Market scanner

All available markets

Compare each current bookmaker odd with the fair price from the shared recent-form model.

MarketCurrent OddsFair OddsValue
1Home Win
 1.81 2.01 -9.78%
XDraw
 3.87 3.98 -2.68%
2Away Win
 3.72 4.00 -6.96%
1XDouble Chance 1X
 1.25 1.33 -6.26%
12Double Chance 12
 1.20 1.34 -10.18%
X2Double Chance X2
 1.90 1.99 -4.70%
DNB1Draw No Bet 1
 1.39 1.50 -7.44%
DNB2Draw No Bet 2
 2.86 2.99 -4.44% Selected
Comparative form

Common-opponent evidence

How both teams performed against the same league opponents before this fixture.

2 shared opponents
Evidence overview

Away team performed better by 16.7%

Based on 2 shared opponents. Historical comparison only; it does not guarantee the result.
AFC Toronto W
Points earned1
Goal difference-1
Odds performance 6.00
Halifax Tides W
Points earned2
Goal difference0
Odds performance 3.00
Match-by-match comparisonMost recent completed result against each shared opponent
Win Draw Loss
Shared opponentAFC Toronto WHalifax Tides W
Calgary Wild W
0–1
LossHome · 18 Oct 2026
0 pts
0–0
DrawHome · 03 Oct 2026
1 pts
Montreal Roses W
2–2
DrawAway · 11 Sep 2026
1 pts
2–2
DrawHome · 17 Oct 2026
1 pts
League strength

Recent-form Poisson model

Recent completed results, venue-specific scoring and goals conceded estimate fair probabilities. The strongest 1X2 outcome is selected first, then the highest expected-value eligible market is identified.

FORM MODEL

AFC Toronto W

Position#3
Played25
Wins10
Draws9
Losses6
Goals For38
Goals Against24
Goal Difference14
Points39
Points / Game1.56
Win Rate40.0%
GD / Game0.56

Halifax Tides W

Position#5
Played25
Wins7
Draws8
Losses10
Goals For24
Goals Against24
Goal Difference0
Points29
Points / Game1.16
Win Rate28.0%
GD / Game0.00
Calculation: Recency-weighted goals scored and conceded, separate home/away performance, league scoring baseline, sample-size shrinkage and home advantage feed a Poisson score model. Fair odds are compared with bookmaker odds to calculate expected value.
Home Probability49.84%
Draw Probability25.15%
Away Probability25.01%
Historical evidence

Comparable-odds performance

Completed matches where the same market traded within the selected odds range.

2.71 — 3.01
Wins430
Losses790
Voids / Draws370
Avg. Goals3.06
Historical data is descriptive. Small samples may produce unstable percentages, and missing odds or scores are excluded.
Team form

Recent completed matches

Only the recent completed matches of the two teams in this analysis are shown.

6 each
AFC Toronto WLast 6 completed
27 Oct AFC Toronto W 1 – 1 Halifax Tides W
18 Oct AFC Toronto W 0 – 1 Calgary Wild W
04 Oct AFC Toronto W 2 – 1 Vancouver Rise W
26 Sep AFC Toronto W 3 – 0 Ottawa Rapid W
19 Sep Halifax Tides W 1 – 1 AFC Toronto W
11 Sep Montreal Roses W 2 – 2 AFC Toronto W
Halifax Tides WLast 6 completed
27 Oct AFC Toronto W 1 – 1 Halifax Tides W
17 Oct Halifax Tides W 2 – 2 Montreal Roses W
03 Oct Halifax Tides W 0 – 0 Calgary Wild W
27 Sep Halifax Tides W 0 – 0 Montreal Roses W
19 Sep Halifax Tides W 1 – 1 AFC Toronto W
12 Sep Calgary Wild W 1 – 0 Halifax Tides W