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Match Centre ENGLAND - National League North Analysis
SOCCERTAB ANALYSIS
ENGLAND - National League North • 27 Oct 2026

Southport

HOME
19:45
VS
Postponed

Macclesfield

AWAY
Selected market
Draw No Bet 1
2.87
Current bookmaker price
Expected Value-12.59%Vs form-based fair odds
Historical Sample826Comparable odds records
Historical Hit Rate45.1%Wins among decided matches
Historical ROI21.15%Flat 1-unit calculation
Probability model

1X2 probability distribution

Bookmaker odds and their normalized 1X2 probabilities.

100% normalized
Home WinOdds 3.71
24.4%
DrawOdds 3.60
25.1%
Away WinOdds 1.79
50.5%
The displayed 1X2 probabilities show the bookmaker market. Expected value is calculated separately against the shared recent-form Poisson model, using only completed matches before kickoff.
Market scanner

All available markets

Compare each current bookmaker odd with the fair price from the shared recent-form model.

MarketCurrent OddsFair OddsValue
1Home Win
 3.71 2.61 +41.95%
XDraw
 3.60 4.16 -13.47%
2Away Win
 1.79 2.65 -32.51%
1XDouble Chance 1X
 1.85 1.61 +15.25%
12Double Chance 12
 1.20 1.32 -8.84%
X2Double Chance X2
 1.20 1.62 -25.91%
DNB1Draw No Bet 1
 2.87 1.99 +44.55% Selected
DNB2Draw No Bet 2
 1.39 2.01 -31.01%
Comparative form

Common-opponent evidence

How both teams performed against the same league opponents before this fixture.

2 shared opponents
Evidence overview

Away team performed better by 50.0%

Based on 2 shared opponents. Historical comparison only; it does not guarantee the result.
Southport
Points earned1
Goal difference-1
Odds performance 6.00
Macclesfield
Points earned4
Goal difference+1
Odds performance 1.50
Match-by-match comparisonMost recent completed result against each shared opponent
Win Draw Loss
Shared opponentSouthportMacclesfield
Harborough
0–1
LossAway · 10 Oct 2026
0 pts
1–0
WinHome · 26 Sep 2026
3 pts
Spennymoor
2–2
DrawHome · 26 Sep 2026
1 pts
1–1
DrawAway · 12 Sep 2026
1 pts
League strength

Recent-form Poisson model

Recent completed results, venue-specific scoring and goals conceded estimate fair probabilities. The strongest 1X2 outcome is selected first, then the highest expected-value eligible market is identified.

FORM MODEL

Southport

Position#23
Played13
Wins2
Draws4
Losses7
Goals For13
Goals Against23
Goal Difference-10
Points10
Points / Game0.77
Win Rate15.4%
GD / Game-0.77

Macclesfield

Position#4
Played12
Wins7
Draws3
Losses2
Goals For18
Goals Against11
Goal Difference7
Points24
Points / Game2.00
Win Rate58.3%
GD / Game0.58
Calculation: Recency-weighted goals scored and conceded, separate home/away performance, league scoring baseline, sample-size shrinkage and home advantage feed a Poisson score model. Fair odds are compared with bookmaker odds to calculate expected value.
Home Probability38.26%
Draw Probability24.04%
Away Probability37.70%
Historical evidence

Comparable-odds performance

Completed matches where the same market traded within the selected odds range.

2.72 — 3.02
Wins287
Losses350
Voids / Draws189
Avg. Goals3.15
Historical data is descriptive. Small samples may produce unstable percentages, and missing odds or scores are excluded.
Team form

Recent completed matches

Only the recent completed matches of the two teams in this analysis are shown.

6 each
SouthportLast 6 completed
24 Oct King’s Lynn 0 – 0 Southport
17 Oct Southport 0 – 2 Radcliffe
10 Oct Harborough 1 – 0 Southport
26 Sep Southport 2 – 2 Spennymoor
19 Sep Morecambe 2 – 0 Southport
12 Sep Worksop 2 – 0 Southport
MacclesfieldLast 6 completed
24 Oct Macclesfield 1 – 2 Hereford
20 Oct Anstey Nomads 0 – 3 Macclesfield
17 Oct Macclesfield 1 – 1 Anstey Nomads
10 Oct Macclesfield 4 – 3 South Shields
06 Oct Scarborough 1 – 1 Macclesfield
03 Oct Macclesfield 2 – 2 Scarborough