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Match Centre SERBIA - Mozzart Serbian Cup Analysis
SOCCERTAB ANALYSIS
SERBIA flag SERBIA - Mozzart Serbian Cup • 28 Oct 2026

Smederevo

HOME
12:00
2:3
Finished

TSC

AWAY
Selected market
Draw No Bet 1
2.05
Current bookmaker price
Expected Value46.67%Vs form-based fair odds
Historical Sample2,000Comparable odds records
Historical Hit Rate54.3%Wins among decided matches
Historical ROI7.99%Flat 1-unit calculation
Probability model

1X2 probability distribution

Bookmaker odds and their normalized 1X2 probabilities.

100% normalized
Home WinOdds 2.75
34.0%
DrawOdds 3.67
25.4%
Away WinOdds 2.30
40.6%
The displayed 1X2 probabilities show the bookmaker market. Expected value is calculated separately against the shared recent-form Poisson model, using only completed matches before kickoff.
Market scanner

All available markets

Compare each current bookmaker odd with the fair price from the shared recent-form model.

MarketCurrent OddsFair OddsValue
1Home Win
 2.75 2.47 +11.30%
XDraw
 3.67 3.45 +6.31%
2Away Win
 2.30 3.27 -29.71%
1XDouble Chance 1X
 1.55 1.44 +7.63%
12Double Chance 12
 1.25 1.41 -11.21%
X2Double Chance X2
 1.40 1.68 -16.66%
DNB1Draw No Bet 1
 2.05 1.76 +16.81% Selected
DNB2Draw No Bet 2
 1.72 2.32 -26.00%
Comparative form

Common-opponent evidence

How both teams performed against the same league opponents before this fixture.

0 shared opponents
No common-opponent evidence yet

There are no shared opponents with completed league results recorded before this fixture. The comparison will appear when qualifying results are available.

League strength

Recent-form Poisson model

Recent completed results, venue-specific scoring and goals conceded estimate fair probabilities. The strongest 1X2 outcome is selected first, then the highest expected-value eligible market is identified.

FORM MODEL

Smederevo

Position#0
Played0
Wins0
Draws0
Losses0
Goals For0
Goals Against0
Goal Difference0
Points0
Points / Game0.00
Win Rate0.0%
GD / Game0.00

TSC

Position#0
Played0
Wins0
Draws0
Losses0
Goals For0
Goals Against0
Goal Difference0
Points0
Points / Game0.00
Win Rate0.0%
GD / Game0.00
Calculation: Recency-weighted goals scored and conceded, separate home/away performance, league scoring baseline, sample-size shrinkage and home advantage feed a Poisson score model. Fair odds are compared with bookmaker odds to calculate expected value.
Home Probability40.47%
Draw Probability28.97%
Away Probability30.56%
Historical evidence

Comparable-odds performance

Completed matches where the same market traded within the selected odds range.

1.90 — 2.20
Wins806
Losses677
Voids / Draws517
Avg. Goals3.00
Historical data is descriptive. Small samples may produce unstable percentages, and missing odds or scores are excluded.
Team form

Recent completed matches

Only the recent completed matches of the two teams in this analysis are shown.

6 each
SmederevoLast 6 completed
28 Oct Smederevo 1 – 1 TSC 2-3 Penalties Teleoptik
28 Oct Smederevo 2 – 3 TSC
23 Oct Dubocica 1 – 0 Smederevo
17 Oct Smederevo 1 – 1 Proleter 023
12 Oct Loznica 1 – 0 Smederevo
05 Oct Smederevo 1 – 0 Vozdovac
TSCLast 6 completed
28 Oct Smederevo 2 – 3 TSC
23 Oct Teleoptik 1 – 2 TSC
17 Oct TSC 5 – 1 Metalac
11 Oct Bor 1919 1 – 4 TSC
05 Oct TSC 4 – 1 Graficar Beograd
26 Sep Borac 1926 2 – 2 TSC