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Match Centre ITALY - Coppa Italia Serie C Analysis
SOCCERTAB ANALYSIS
ITALY flag ITALY - Coppa Italia Serie C • 28 Oct 2026

Dolomiti Bellunesi

HOME
90+'
0:0
Live

Desenzano

AWAY
Selected market
Draw No Bet 1
1.83
Current bookmaker price
Expected Value4.27%Vs form-based fair odds
Historical Sample2,000Comparable odds records
Historical Hit Rate55.8%Wins among decided matches
Historical ROI1.50%Flat 1-unit calculation
Probability model

1X2 probability distribution

Bookmaker odds and their normalized 1X2 probabilities.

100% normalized
Home WinOdds 2.58
35.8%
DrawOdds 3.09
29.9%
Away WinOdds 2.70
34.2%
The displayed 1X2 probabilities show the bookmaker market. Expected value is calculated separately against the shared recent-form Poisson model, using only completed matches before kickoff.
Market scanner

All available markets

Compare each current bookmaker odd with the fair price from the shared recent-form model.

MarketCurrent OddsFair OddsValue
1Home Win
 2.58 2.47 +4.42%
XDraw
 3.09 3.45 -10.49%
2Away Win
 2.70 3.27 -17.49%
1XDouble Chance 1X
 1.40 1.44 -2.78%
12Double Chance 12
 1.30 1.41 -7.66%
X2Double Chance X2
 1.45 1.68 -13.69%
DNB1Draw No Bet 1
 1.83 1.76 +4.27% Selected
DNB2Draw No Bet 2
 1.91 2.32 -17.83%
Comparative form

Common-opponent evidence

How both teams performed against the same league opponents before this fixture.

0 shared opponents
No common-opponent evidence yet

There are no shared opponents with completed league results recorded before this fixture. The comparison will appear when qualifying results are available.

League strength

Recent-form Poisson model

Recent completed results, venue-specific scoring and goals conceded estimate fair probabilities. The strongest 1X2 outcome is selected first, then the highest expected-value eligible market is identified.

FORM MODEL

Dolomiti Bellunesi

Position#0
Played0
Wins0
Draws0
Losses0
Goals For0
Goals Against0
Goal Difference0
Points0
Points / Game0.00
Win Rate0.0%
GD / Game0.00

Desenzano

Position#0
Played0
Wins0
Draws0
Losses0
Goals For0
Goals Against0
Goal Difference0
Points0
Points / Game0.00
Win Rate0.0%
GD / Game0.00
Calculation: Recency-weighted goals scored and conceded, separate home/away performance, league scoring baseline, sample-size shrinkage and home advantage feed a Poisson score model. Fair odds are compared with bookmaker odds to calculate expected value.
Home Probability40.47%
Draw Probability28.97%
Away Probability30.56%
Historical evidence

Comparable-odds performance

Completed matches where the same market traded within the selected odds range.

1.68 — 1.98
Wins812
Losses644
Voids / Draws544
Avg. Goals2.90
Historical data is descriptive. Small samples may produce unstable percentages, and missing odds or scores are excluded.
Team form

Recent completed matches

Only the recent completed matches of the two teams in this analysis are shown.

6 each
Dolomiti BellunesiLast 6 completed
28 Oct Dolomiti Bellunesi 0 – 0 Desenzano
24 Oct Treviso 2 – 1 Dolomiti Bellunesi
20 Oct Dolomiti Bellunesi 0 – 3 Trento
10 Oct Desenzano 2 – 0 Dolomiti Bellunesi
04 Oct Dolomiti Bellunesi 1 – 2 Novara
27 Sep Brescia 1 – 1 Dolomiti Bellunesi
DesenzanoLast 6 completed
28 Oct Dolomiti Bellunesi 0 – 0 Desenzano
25 Oct Desenzano 1 – 2 Giana Erminio
18 Oct Alcione Milano 4 – 1 Desenzano
10 Oct Desenzano 2 – 0 Dolomiti Bellunesi
03 Oct Folgore Caratese 1 – 2 Desenzano
26 Sep Desenzano 0 – 0 Juventus U23