ARGENTINA - Reserve League - Clausura
•
28 Oct 2026
Gimnasia Mendoza 2
HOME Half Time
0:0
Live
Union de Santa Fe 2
AWAYSelected market
Draw No Bet 1
1.73
Current bookmaker price
Expected Value50.41%Vs form-based fair odds
Historical Sample2,000Comparable odds records
Historical Hit Rate56.6%Wins among decided matches
Historical ROI-1.52%Flat 1-unit calculation
Probability model
1X2 probability distribution
Bookmaker odds and their normalized 1X2 probabilities.
100% normalized
Home WinOdds 2.41
38.8%DrawOdds 3.34
28.0%Away WinOdds 2.82
33.2% The displayed 1X2 probabilities show the bookmaker market. Expected value is calculated separately against the shared recent-form Poisson model, using only completed matches before kickoff.
Market scanner
All available markets
Compare each current bookmaker odd with the fair price from the shared recent-form model.
| Market | Current Odds | Fair Odds | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
1Home Win |
2.41 | 1.79 | +34.74% | |
XDraw |
3.34 | 2.80 | +19.22% | |
2Away Win |
2.82 | 11.91 | -76.32% | |
1XDouble Chance 1X |
1.40 | 1.09 | +28.24% | |
12Double Chance 12 |
1.30 | 1.56 | -16.40% | |
X2Double Chance X2 |
1.55 | 2.27 | -31.66% | |
DNB1Draw No Bet 1 |
1.73 | 1.15 | +50.41% | Selected |
DNB2Draw No Bet 2 |
2.03 | 7.66 | -73.49% |
Comparative form
Common-opponent evidence
How both teams performed against the same league opponents before this fixture.
3 shared opponents
Gimnasia Mendoza 2
Points earned7
Goal difference+2
Odds performance
1.29
Union de Santa Fe 2
Points earned4
Goal difference+2
Odds performance
2.25
Match-by-match comparisonMost recent completed result against each shared opponent
Win Draw Loss| Shared opponent | Gimnasia Mendoza 2 | Union de Santa Fe 2 |
|---|---|---|
Barracas Central 2 |
0–01 pts |
1–11 pts |
Talleres Cordoba 2 |
1–03 pts |
0–30 pts |
Banfield 2 |
2–13 pts |
5–03 pts |
League strength
Recent-form Poisson model
Recent completed results, venue-specific scoring and goals conceded estimate fair probabilities. The strongest 1X2 outcome is selected first, then the highest expected-value eligible market is identified.
FORM MODEL
Gimnasia Mendoza 2
| Position | #0 |
| Played | 0 |
| Wins | 0 |
| Draws | 0 |
| Losses | 0 |
| Goals For | 0 |
| Goals Against | 0 |
| Goal Difference | 0 |
| Points | 0 |
| Points / Game | 0.00 |
| Win Rate | 0.0% |
| GD / Game | 0.00 |
Union de Santa Fe 2
| Position | #0 |
| Played | 0 |
| Wins | 0 |
| Draws | 0 |
| Losses | 0 |
| Goals For | 0 |
| Goals Against | 0 |
| Goal Difference | 0 |
| Points | 0 |
| Points / Game | 0.00 |
| Win Rate | 0.0% |
| GD / Game | 0.00 |
Calculation: Recency-weighted goals scored and conceded, separate home/away performance, league scoring baseline, sample-size shrinkage and home advantage feed a Poisson score model. Fair odds are compared with bookmaker odds to calculate expected value.
Home Probability55.91%
Draw Probability35.70%
Away Probability8.40%
Historical evidence
Comparable-odds performance
Completed matches where the same market traded within the selected odds range.
1.58 — 1.88
Wins819
Losses628
Voids / Draws553
Avg. Goals2.93
Historical data is descriptive. Small samples may produce unstable percentages, and missing odds or scores are excluded.
Team form
Recent completed matches
Only the recent completed matches of the two teams in this analysis are shown.
6 each
Gimnasia Mendoza 2Last 6 completed
28 Oct
Gimnasia Mendoza 2
0 – 0
Union de Santa Fe 2
22 Oct
Atl. Tucuman 2
0 – 0
Gimnasia Mendoza 2
15 Oct
Gimnasia Mendoza 2
0 – 0
Godoy Cruz 2
14 Oct
Gimnasia Mendoza 2
0 – 0
Godoy Cruz 2
07 Oct
Gimnasia Mendoza 2
1 – 1
Instituto 2
01 Oct
Barracas Central 2
0 – 0
Gimnasia Mendoza 2
Union de Santa Fe 2Last 6 completed
28 Oct
Gimnasia Mendoza 2
0 – 0
Union de Santa Fe 2
22 Oct
Union de Santa Fe 2
1 – 1
Barracas Central 2
15 Oct
Talleres Cordoba 2
3 – 0
Union de Santa Fe 2
06 Oct
Union de Santa Fe 2
5 – 0
Banfield 2
30 Sep
Rosario Central 2
2 – 0
Union de Santa Fe 2
25 Sep
Colon Santa Fe 2
2 – 1
Union de Santa Fe 2