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Match Centre ALBANIA - Kategoria e Parë Analysis
SOCCERTAB ANALYSIS
ALBANIA flag ALBANIA - Kategoria e Parë • 28 Oct 2026

Pogradeci

HOME
12:30
0:0
Finished

Oriku

AWAY
Selected market
Draw No Bet 1
1.01
Current bookmaker price
Expected Value-21.98%Vs form-based fair odds
Historical Sample2,000Comparable odds records
Historical Hit Rate73.7%Wins among decided matches
Historical ROI-15.84%Flat 1-unit calculation
Probability model

1X2 probability distribution

Bookmaker odds and their normalized 1X2 probabilities.

100% normalized
Home WinOdds 1.13
82.2%
DrawOdds 8.00
11.6%
Away WinOdds 15.00
6.2%
The displayed 1X2 probabilities show the bookmaker market. Expected value is calculated separately against the shared recent-form Poisson model, using only completed matches before kickoff.
Market scanner

All available markets

Compare each current bookmaker odd with the fair price from the shared recent-form model.

MarketCurrent OddsFair OddsValue
1Home Win
 1.13 1.47 -23.00%
XDraw
 8.00 5.28 +51.55%
2Away Win
 15.00 7.75 +93.66%
1XDouble Chance 1X
 1.00 1.15 -12.91%
12Double Chance 12
 1.05 1.23 -14.89%
X2Double Chance X2
 5.20 3.14 +65.64%
DNB1Draw No Bet 1
 1.01 1.19 -15.09% Selected
DNB2Draw No Bet 2
 13.35 6.28 +100.00%
Comparative form

Common-opponent evidence

How both teams performed against the same league opponents before this fixture.

4 shared opponents
Evidence overview

Home team performed better by 41.7%

Based on 4 shared opponents. Historical comparison only; it does not guarantee the result.
Pogradeci
Points earned6
Goal difference+1
Odds performance 2.00
Oriku
Points earned1
Goal difference-6
Odds performance 12.00
Match-by-match comparisonMost recent completed result against each shared opponent
Win Draw Loss
Shared opponentPogradeciOriku
Bylis
2–2
DrawAway · 23 Oct 2026
1 pts
1–2
LossHome · 12 Sep 2026
0 pts
Sopoti Librazhd
2–2
DrawHome · 17 Oct 2026
1 pts
1–1
DrawAway · 24 Oct 2026
1 pts
Flamurtari
0–0
DrawHome · 20 Sep 2026
1 pts
1–4
LossHome · 16 Oct 2026
0 pts
Kastrioti
2–1
WinHome · 12 Sep 2026
3 pts
0–2
LossAway · 11 Oct 2026
0 pts
League strength

Recent-form Poisson model

Recent completed results, venue-specific scoring and goals conceded estimate fair probabilities. The strongest 1X2 outcome is selected first, then the highest expected-value eligible market is identified.

FORM MODEL

Pogradeci

Position#3
Played8
Wins3
Draws5
Losses0
Goals For11
Goals Against5
Goal Difference6
Points14
Points / Game1.75
Win Rate37.5%
GD / Game0.75

Oriku

Position#12
Played8
Wins0
Draws2
Losses6
Goals For3
Goals Against16
Goal Difference-13
Points2
Points / Game0.25
Win Rate0.0%
GD / Game-1.63
Calculation: Recency-weighted goals scored and conceded, separate home/away performance, league scoring baseline, sample-size shrinkage and home advantage feed a Poisson score model. Fair odds are compared with bookmaker odds to calculate expected value.
Home Probability68.15%
Draw Probability18.94%
Away Probability12.91%
Historical evidence

Comparable-odds performance

Completed matches where the same market traded within the selected odds range.

1.01 — 1.16
Wins1,187
Losses423
Voids / Draws390
Avg. Goals3.28
Historical data is descriptive. Small samples may produce unstable percentages, and missing odds or scores are excluded.
Team form

Recent completed matches

Only the recent completed matches of the two teams in this analysis are shown.

6 each
PogradeciLast 6 completed
28 Oct Pogradeci 0 – 0 Oriku
23 Oct Bylis 2 – 2 Pogradeci
17 Oct Pogradeci 2 – 2 Sopoti Librazhd
11 Oct Korabi Peshkopi 0 – 2 Pogradeci
07 Oct Pogradeci 7 – 0 Delvina
20 Sep Pogradeci 0 – 0 Flamurtari
OrikuLast 6 completed
28 Oct Pogradeci 0 – 0 Oriku
24 Oct Sopoti Librazhd 1 – 1 Oriku
16 Oct Oriku 1 – 4 Flamurtari
11 Oct Kastrioti 2 – 0 Oriku
07 Oct Oriku 1 – 2 Butrinti Sarande
20 Sep Oriku 0 – 1 Burreli