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Match Centre CZECH REPUBLIC - MOL Cup Analysis
SOCCERTAB ANALYSIS
CZECH REPUBLIC flag CZECH REPUBLIC - MOL Cup • 28 Oct 2026

Varnsdorf

HOME
26'
1:3
Live

Horni Redice

AWAY
Selected market
Away Win
6.15
Current bookmaker price
Expected Value100.00%Vs form-based fair odds
Historical Sample352Comparable odds records
Historical Hit Rate20.7%Wins among decided matches
Historical ROI28.18%Flat 1-unit calculation
Probability model

1X2 probability distribution

Bookmaker odds and their normalized 1X2 probabilities.

100% normalized
Home WinOdds 1.37
67.7%
DrawOdds 5.38
17.2%
Away WinOdds 6.15
15.1%
The displayed 1X2 probabilities show the bookmaker market. Expected value is calculated separately against the shared recent-form Poisson model, using only completed matches before kickoff.
Market scanner

All available markets

Compare each current bookmaker odd with the fair price from the shared recent-form model.

MarketCurrent OddsFair OddsValue
1Home Win
 1.37 3.12 -56.10%
XDraw
 5.38 5.27 +2.15%
2Away Win
 6.15 2.04 +100.00%
1XDouble Chance 1X
 1.10 1.96 -43.86%
12Double Chance 12
 1.10 1.23 -10.89%
X2Double Chance X2
 2.85 1.47 +93.67%
DNB1Draw No Bet 1
 1.14 2.53 -54.90%
DNB2Draw No Bet 2
 5.13 1.65 +100.00%
Comparative form

Common-opponent evidence

How both teams performed against the same league opponents before this fixture.

0 shared opponents
No common-opponent evidence yet

There are no shared opponents with completed league results recorded before this fixture. The comparison will appear when qualifying results are available.

League strength

Recent-form Poisson model

Recent completed results, venue-specific scoring and goals conceded estimate fair probabilities. The strongest 1X2 outcome is selected first, then the highest expected-value eligible market is identified.

FORM MODEL

Varnsdorf

Position#0
Played0
Wins0
Draws0
Losses0
Goals For0
Goals Against0
Goal Difference0
Points0
Points / Game0.00
Win Rate0.0%
GD / Game0.00

Horni Redice

Position#0
Played0
Wins0
Draws0
Losses0
Goals For0
Goals Against0
Goal Difference0
Points0
Points / Game0.00
Win Rate0.0%
GD / Game0.00
Calculation: Recency-weighted goals scored and conceded, separate home/away performance, league scoring baseline, sample-size shrinkage and home advantage feed a Poisson score model. Fair odds are compared with bookmaker odds to calculate expected value.
Home Probability32.05%
Draw Probability18.99%
Away Probability48.97%
Historical evidence

Comparable-odds performance

Completed matches where the same market traded within the selected odds range.

6.00 — 6.30
Wins73
Losses279
Voids / Draws0
Avg. Goals3.30
Historical data is descriptive. Small samples may produce unstable percentages, and missing odds or scores are excluded.
Team form

Recent completed matches

Only the recent completed matches of the two teams in this analysis are shown.

6 each
VarnsdorfLast 6 completed
28 Oct Varnsdorf 1 – 3 Horni Redice 0-0 CZECH
28 Oct Varnsdorf 0 – 2 Horni Redice
25 Oct Varnsdorf 3 – 2 Brozany
17 Oct Banik Most-Sous 1 – 0 Varnsdorf
11 Oct Varnsdorf 2 – 1 Hradec Kralove B
07 Oct Mlada Boleslav B 1 – 1 Varnsdorf
Horni RediceLast 6 completed
28 Oct Varnsdorf 0 – 2 Horni Redice
24 Oct Liberec B 5 – 1 Horni Redice
17 Oct Chrudim 2 – 1 Horni Redice
10 Oct Horni Redice 0 – 2 Benatky n. Jiz.
26 Sep Horni Redice 4 – 1 Teplice B
20 Sep Caslav 2 – 1 Horni Redice