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Match Centre BRAZIL - Serie A Analysis
SOCCERTAB ANALYSIS
BRAZIL flag BRAZIL - Serie A • 27 Oct 2026

Flamengo RJ

HOME
23:00
3:2
Finished

Atletico-MG

AWAY
Selected market
Away Win
13.20
Current bookmaker price
Expected Value100.00%Vs form-based fair odds
Historical Sample20Comparable odds records
Historical Hit Rate10.0%Wins among decided matches
Historical ROI33.00%Flat 1-unit calculation
Probability model

1X2 probability distribution

Bookmaker odds and their normalized 1X2 probabilities.

100% normalized
Home WinOdds 1.27
75.6%
DrawOdds 5.59
17.2%
Away WinOdds 13.20
7.3%
The displayed 1X2 probabilities show the bookmaker market. Expected value is calculated separately against the shared recent-form Poisson model, using only completed matches before kickoff.
Market scanner

All available markets

Compare each current bookmaker odd with the fair price from the shared recent-form model.

MarketCurrent OddsFair OddsValue
1Home Win
 1.27 1.64 -22.56%
XDraw
 5.59 5.50 +1.71%
2Away Win
 13.20 4.80 +100.00%
1XDouble Chance 1X
 1.05 1.26 -16.87%
12Double Chance 12
 1.15 1.22 -5.92%
X2Double Chance X2
 3.95 2.56 +54.13%
DNB1Draw No Bet 1
 1.02 1.34 -23.97%
DNB2Draw No Bet 2
 10.65 3.93 +100.00%
League strength

Recent-form Poisson model

Recent completed results, venue-specific scoring and goals conceded estimate fair probabilities. The strongest 1X2 outcome is selected first, then the highest expected-value eligible market is identified.

FORM MODEL

Flamengo RJ

Position#1
Played32
Wins21
Draws7
Losses4
Goals For64
Goals Against27
Goal Difference37
Points70
Points / Game2.19
Win Rate65.6%
GD / Game1.16

Atletico-MG

Position#6
Played32
Wins14
Draws8
Losses10
Goals For44
Goals Against38
Goal Difference6
Points50
Points / Game1.56
Win Rate43.8%
GD / Game0.19
Calculation: Recency-weighted goals scored and conceded, separate home/away performance, league scoring baseline, sample-size shrinkage and home advantage feed a Poisson score model. Fair odds are compared with bookmaker odds to calculate expected value.
Home Probability60.98%
Draw Probability18.19%
Away Probability20.83%
Historical evidence

Comparable-odds performance

Completed matches where the same market traded within the selected odds range.

13.05 — 13.35
Wins2
Losses18
Voids / Draws0
Avg. Goals4.05
Historical data is descriptive. Small samples may produce unstable percentages, and missing odds or scores are excluded.
Team form

Recent completed matches

Only the recent completed matches of the two teams in this analysis are shown.

6 each
Flamengo RJLast 6 completed
27 Oct Flamengo RJ 3 – 2 Atletico-MG
26 Oct Flamengo RJ 3 – 2 Atletico-MG
18 Oct Bahia 0 – 3 Flamengo RJ
11 Oct Flamengo RJ 1 – 0 Fluminense
11 Oct Flamengo RJ 1 – 0 Fluminense
09 Oct Santos 2 – 2 Flamengo RJ
Atletico-MGLast 6 completed
27 Oct Flamengo RJ 3 – 2 Atletico-MG
26 Oct Flamengo RJ 3 – 2 Atletico-MG
18 Oct Atletico-MG 1 – 0 Coritiba
11 Oct Atletico-MG 2 – 1 Santos
11 Oct Atletico-MG 2 – 1 Santos
09 Oct Athletico-PR 2 – 2 Atletico-MG