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Match Centre UGANDA - Premier League Analysis
SOCCERTAB ANALYSIS
UGANDA flag UGANDA - Premier League • 28 Oct 2026

Entebbe UPPC

HOME
77'
0:0
Live

Maroons

AWAY
Selected market
Away Win
5.72
Current bookmaker price
Expected Value-1.35%Vs form-based fair odds
Historical Sample310Comparable odds records
Historical Hit Rate23.5%Wins among decided matches
Historical ROI34.22%Flat 1-unit calculation
Probability model

1X2 probability distribution

Bookmaker odds and their normalized 1X2 probabilities.

100% normalized
Home WinOdds 1.68
55.1%
DrawOdds 3.22
28.7%
Away WinOdds 5.72
16.2%
The displayed 1X2 probabilities show the bookmaker market. Expected value is calculated separately against the shared recent-form Poisson model, using only completed matches before kickoff.
Market scanner

All available markets

Compare each current bookmaker odd with the fair price from the shared recent-form model.

MarketCurrent OddsFair OddsValue
1Home Win
 1.68 1.79 -5.94%
XDraw
 3.22 3.74 -13.81%
2Away Win
 5.72 5.80 -1.35%
1XDouble Chance 1X
 1.10 1.21 -8.97%
12Double Chance 12
 1.30 1.37 -4.80%
X2Double Chance X2
 2.05 2.27 -9.77%
DNB1Draw No Bet 1
 1.21 1.31 -7.50%
DNB2Draw No Bet 2
 4.12 4.25 -2.97%
Comparative form

Common-opponent evidence

How both teams performed against the same league opponents before this fixture.

1 shared opponent
Evidence overview

Away team performed better by 100.0%

Based on 1 shared opponent. Historical comparison only; it does not guarantee the result.
Entebbe UPPC
Points earned0
Goal difference-1
Odds performance N/A
Maroons
Points earned3
Goal difference+3
Odds performance 1.00
Match-by-match comparisonMost recent completed result against each shared opponent
Win Draw Loss
Shared opponentEntebbe UPPCMaroons
Lugazi
0–1
LossHome · 09 Sep 2026
0 pts
3–0
WinHome · 07 Oct 2026
3 pts
League strength

Recent-form Poisson model

Recent completed results, venue-specific scoring and goals conceded estimate fair probabilities. The strongest 1X2 outcome is selected first, then the highest expected-value eligible market is identified.

FORM MODEL

Entebbe UPPC

Position#4
Played7
Wins4
Draws2
Losses1
Goals For7
Goals Against2
Goal Difference5
Points14
Points / Game2.00
Win Rate57.1%
GD / Game0.71

Maroons

Position#8
Played7
Wins3
Draws1
Losses3
Goals For13
Goals Against8
Goal Difference5
Points10
Points / Game1.43
Win Rate42.9%
GD / Game0.71
Calculation: Recency-weighted goals scored and conceded, separate home/away performance, league scoring baseline, sample-size shrinkage and home advantage feed a Poisson score model. Fair odds are compared with bookmaker odds to calculate expected value.
Home Probability55.99%
Draw Probability26.77%
Away Probability17.25%
Historical evidence

Comparable-odds performance

Completed matches where the same market traded within the selected odds range.

5.57 — 5.87
Wins73
Losses237
Voids / Draws0
Avg. Goals3.15
Historical data is descriptive. Small samples may produce unstable percentages, and missing odds or scores are excluded.
Team form

Recent completed matches

Only the recent completed matches of the two teams in this analysis are shown.

6 each
Entebbe UPPCLast 6 completed
28 Oct Entebbe UPPC 0 – 0 Maroons
22 Oct Kigezi HomeBoyz 0 – 1 Entebbe UPPC
15 Oct URA SC 0 – 0 Entebbe UPPC
09 Oct Entebbe UPPC 3 – 0 Police
16 Sep Mbarara City 0 – 0 Entebbe UPPC
09 Sep Entebbe UPPC 0 – 1 Lugazi
MaroonsLast 6 completed
28 Oct Entebbe UPPC 0 – 0 Maroons
20 Oct Maroons 4 – 1 Kataka
11 Oct Vipers 1 – 1 Maroons
07 Oct Maroons 3 – 0 Lugazi
17 Sep UPDF 1 – 0 Maroons
08 Sep Maroons 1 – 2 Blacks Power