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Match Centre SWEDEN - Allsvenskan Analysis
SOCCERTAB ANALYSIS
SWEDEN flag SWEDEN - Allsvenskan • 28 Oct 2026

Degerfors

HOME
45+'
0:1
Live

Vasteras SK

AWAY
Selected market
Away Win
2.42
Current bookmaker price
Expected Value23.54%Vs form-based fair odds
Historical Sample2,000Comparable odds records
Historical Hit Rate34.3%Wins among decided matches
Historical ROI-16.52%Flat 1-unit calculation
Probability model

1X2 probability distribution

Bookmaker odds and their normalized 1X2 probabilities.

100% normalized
Home WinOdds 3.03
31.3%
DrawOdds 3.23
29.4%
Away WinOdds 2.42
39.2%
The displayed 1X2 probabilities show the bookmaker market. Expected value is calculated separately against the shared recent-form Poisson model, using only completed matches before kickoff.
Market scanner

All available markets

Compare each current bookmaker odd with the fair price from the shared recent-form model.

MarketCurrent OddsFair OddsValue
1Home Win
 3.03 4.03 -24.80%
XDraw
 3.23 4.14 -22.05%
2Away Win
 2.42 1.96 +23.54%
1XDouble Chance 1X
 1.55 2.04 -24.13%
12Double Chance 12
 1.35 1.32 +2.42%
X2Double Chance X2
 1.40 1.33 +5.25%
DNB1Draw No Bet 1
 2.11 3.06 -30.97%
DNB2Draw No Bet 2
 1.68 1.49 +13.04%
Comparative form

Common-opponent evidence

How both teams performed against the same league opponents before this fixture.

1 shared opponent
Evidence overview

Away team performed better by 66.7%

Based on 1 shared opponent. Historical comparison only; it does not guarantee the result.
Degerfors
Points earned1
Goal difference0
Odds performance 3.00
Vasteras SK
Points earned3
Goal difference+1
Odds performance 1.00
Match-by-match comparisonMost recent completed result against each shared opponent
Win Draw Loss
Shared opponentDegerforsVasteras SK
Mjallby
1–1
DrawAway · 10 Oct 2026
1 pts
1–0
WinHome · 18 Oct 2026
3 pts
League strength

Recent-form Poisson model

Recent completed results, venue-specific scoring and goals conceded estimate fair probabilities. The strongest 1X2 outcome is selected first, then the highest expected-value eligible market is identified.

FORM MODEL

Degerfors

Position#14
Played25
Wins5
Draws5
Losses15
Goals For21
Goals Against41
Goal Difference-20
Points20
Points / Game0.80
Win Rate20.0%
GD / Game-0.80

Vasteras SK

Position#6
Played25
Wins11
Draws5
Losses9
Goals For36
Goals Against38
Goal Difference-2
Points38
Points / Game1.52
Win Rate44.0%
GD / Game-0.08
Calculation: Recency-weighted goals scored and conceded, separate home/away performance, league scoring baseline, sample-size shrinkage and home advantage feed a Poisson score model. Fair odds are compared with bookmaker odds to calculate expected value.
Home Probability24.82%
Draw Probability24.13%
Away Probability51.05%
Historical evidence

Comparable-odds performance

Completed matches where the same market traded within the selected odds range.

2.27 — 2.57
Wins686
Losses1,314
Voids / Draws0
Avg. Goals2.98
Historical data is descriptive. Small samples may produce unstable percentages, and missing odds or scores are excluded.
Team form

Recent completed matches

Only the recent completed matches of the two teams in this analysis are shown.

6 each
DegerforsLast 6 completed
28 Oct Degerfors 0 – 1 Vasteras SK
24 Oct Hacken 4 – 0 Degerfors
20 Oct Degerfors 1 – 2 Kalmar
10 Oct Mjallby 1 – 1 Degerfors
20 Sep Degerfors 0 – 1 Hammarby
14 Sep Sirius 2 – 0 Degerfors
Vasteras SKLast 6 completed
28 Oct Degerfors 0 – 1 Vasteras SK
23 Oct Vasteras SK 1 – 2 Halmstad
18 Oct Vasteras SK 1 – 0 Mjallby
09 Oct Goteborg 1 – 0 Vasteras SK
19 Sep Vasteras SK 2 – 0 Malmo FF
12 Sep AIK 1 – 4 Vasteras SK