UGANDA - Premier League
•
27 Oct 2026
NEC FC
HOME 13:00
VS
MATCH PREVIEW
Ntugasaze
AWAYSelected market
Away Win
18.00
Current bookmaker price
Expected Value100.00%Vs form-based fair odds
Historical Sample25Comparable odds records
Historical Hit Rate28.0%Wins among decided matches
Historical ROI402.80%Flat 1-unit calculation
Probability model
1X2 probability distribution
Bookmaker odds and their normalized 1X2 probabilities.
100% normalized
Home WinOdds 1.10
81.0%DrawOdds 6.35
14.0%Away WinOdds 18.00
5.0% The displayed 1X2 probabilities show the bookmaker market. Expected value is calculated separately against the shared recent-form Poisson model, using only completed matches before kickoff.
Market scanner
All available markets
Compare each current bookmaker odd with the fair price from the shared recent-form model.
| Market | Current Odds | Fair Odds | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
1Home Win |
1.10 | 1.47 | -25.19% | |
XDraw |
6.35 | 5.22 | +21.60% | |
2Away Win |
18.00 | 7.79 | +100.00% | |
1XDouble Chance 1X |
0.95 | 1.15 | -17.20% | |
12Double Chance 12 |
1.05 | 1.24 | -15.11% | |
X2Double Chance X2 |
4.70 | 3.13 | +50.36% | |
DNB1Draw No Bet 1 |
0.99 | 1.19 | -16.72% | |
DNB2Draw No Bet 2 |
16.24 | 6.30 | +100.00% |
League strength
Recent-form Poisson model
Recent completed results, venue-specific scoring and goals conceded estimate fair probabilities. The strongest 1X2 outcome is selected first, then the highest expected-value eligible market is identified.
FORM MODEL
NEC FC
| Position | #3 |
| Played | 7 |
| Wins | 4 |
| Draws | 2 |
| Losses | 1 |
| Goals For | 12 |
| Goals Against | 4 |
| Goal Difference | 8 |
| Points | 14 |
| Points / Game | 2.00 |
| Win Rate | 57.1% |
| GD / Game | 1.14 |
Ntugasaze
| Position | #16 |
| Played | 6 |
| Wins | 1 |
| Draws | 0 |
| Losses | 5 |
| Goals For | 3 |
| Goals Against | 13 |
| Goal Difference | -10 |
| Points | 3 |
| Points / Game | 0.50 |
| Win Rate | 16.7% |
| GD / Game | -1.67 |
Calculation: Recency-weighted goals scored and conceded, separate home/away performance, league scoring baseline, sample-size shrinkage and home advantage feed a Poisson score model. Fair odds are compared with bookmaker odds to calculate expected value.
Home Probability68.01%
Draw Probability19.15%
Away Probability12.84%
Historical evidence
Comparable-odds performance
Completed matches where the same market traded within the selected odds range.
17.85 — 18.15
Wins7
Losses18
Voids / Draws0
Avg. Goals3.52
Historical data is descriptive. Small samples may produce unstable percentages, and missing odds or scores are excluded.
Team form
Recent completed matches
Only the recent completed matches of the two teams in this analysis are shown.
6 each
NEC FCLast 6 completed
21 Oct
BUL
2 – 1
NEC FC
14 Oct
Kigezi HomeBoyz
0 – 2
NEC FC
08 Oct
NEC FC
0 – 0
Express
15 Sep
NEC FC
4 – 1
URA SC
11 Sep
Mbarara City
0 – 0
NEC FC
NtugasazeLast 6 completed
13 Oct
Ntugasaze
0 – 2
Kampala City
07 Oct
Ntugasaze
1 – 0
Mbarara City
19 Sep
Vipers
3 – 0
Ntugasaze
08 Sep
BUL
4 – 1
Ntugasaze