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Match Centre NORTH MACEDONIA - Macedonian Cup Analysis
SOCCERTAB ANALYSIS
NORTH MACEDONIA flag NORTH MACEDONIA - Macedonian Cup • 28 Oct 2026

Makedonija GP

HOME
87'
1:2
Live

Bregalnica Stip

AWAY
Selected market
Away Win
1.04
Current bookmaker price
Expected Value-54.44%Vs form-based fair odds
Historical Sample881Comparable odds records
Historical Hit Rate52.0%Wins among decided matches
Historical ROI-43.70%Flat 1-unit calculation
Probability model

1X2 probability distribution

Bookmaker odds and their normalized 1X2 probabilities.

100% normalized
Home WinOdds 24.00
3.7%
DrawOdds 8.20
10.8%
Away WinOdds 1.04
85.5%
The displayed 1X2 probabilities show the bookmaker market. Expected value is calculated separately against the shared recent-form Poisson model, using only completed matches before kickoff.
Market scanner

All available markets

Compare each current bookmaker odd with the fair price from the shared recent-form model.

MarketCurrent OddsFair OddsValue
1Home Win
 24.00 2.56 +100.00%
XDraw
 8.20 5.82 +40.82%
2Away Win
 1.04 2.28 -54.44%
1XDouble Chance 1X
 6.10 1.78 +100.00%
12Double Chance 12
 1.00 1.21 -17.17%
X2Double Chance X2
 0.90 1.64 -45.12%
DNB1Draw No Bet 1
 22.51 2.12 +100.00%
DNB2Draw No Bet 2
 0.98 1.89 -48.17%
Comparative form

Common-opponent evidence

How both teams performed against the same league opponents before this fixture.

0 shared opponents
No common-opponent evidence yet

There are no shared opponents with completed league results recorded before this fixture. The comparison will appear when qualifying results are available.

League strength

Recent-form Poisson model

Recent completed results, venue-specific scoring and goals conceded estimate fair probabilities. The strongest 1X2 outcome is selected first, then the highest expected-value eligible market is identified.

FORM MODEL

Makedonija GP

Position#0
Played0
Wins0
Draws0
Losses0
Goals For0
Goals Against0
Goal Difference0
Points0
Points / Game0.00
Win Rate0.0%
GD / Game0.00

Bregalnica Stip

Position#0
Played0
Wins0
Draws0
Losses0
Goals For0
Goals Against0
Goal Difference0
Points0
Points / Game0.00
Win Rate0.0%
GD / Game0.00
Calculation: Recency-weighted goals scored and conceded, separate home/away performance, league scoring baseline, sample-size shrinkage and home advantage feed a Poisson score model. Fair odds are compared with bookmaker odds to calculate expected value.
Home Probability39.02%
Draw Probability17.17%
Away Probability43.81%
Historical evidence

Comparable-odds performance

Completed matches where the same market traded within the selected odds range.

1.01 — 1.19
Wins458
Losses423
Voids / Draws0
Avg. Goals3.62
Historical data is descriptive. Small samples may produce unstable percentages, and missing odds or scores are excluded.
Team form

Recent completed matches

Only the recent completed matches of the two teams in this analysis are shown.

6 each
Makedonija GPLast 6 completed
28 Oct Makedonija GP 1 – 2 Bregalnica Stip
24 Oct Belasica 1 – 1 Makedonija GP
17 Oct Makedonija GP 0 – 2 Ohrid
10 Oct Shkupi 0 – 1 Makedonija GP
19 Sep Makedonija GP 0 – 1 Rabotnicki
12 Sep Makedonija GP 1 – 0 Kamjani
Bregalnica StipLast 6 completed
28 Oct Makedonija GP 1 – 2 Bregalnica Stip
25 Oct Arsimi 3 – 4 Bregalnica Stip
17 Oct Bregalnica Stip 0 – 1 Vardar
10 Oct Tikves 3 – 0 Bregalnica Stip
23 Sep Bregalnica Stip 1 – 0 FK Skopje
23 Sep Bregalnica Stip 1 – 1 FK Skopje