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Match Centre KYRGYZSTAN - Premier Liga Analysis
SOCCERTAB ANALYSIS
KYRGYZSTAN flag KYRGYZSTAN - Premier Liga • 28 Oct 2026

Kyrgyzaltyn

HOME
13:00
0:4
Finished

Alay Osh

AWAY
Selected market
Away Win
1.92
Current bookmaker price
Expected Value11.64%Vs form-based fair odds
Historical Sample2,000Comparable odds records
Historical Hit Rate39.6%Wins among decided matches
Historical ROI-23.77%Flat 1-unit calculation
Probability model

1X2 probability distribution

Bookmaker odds and their normalized 1X2 probabilities.

100% normalized
Home WinOdds 3.49
27.0%
DrawOdds 3.93
24.0%
Away WinOdds 1.92
49.1%
The displayed 1X2 probabilities show the bookmaker market. Expected value is calculated separately against the shared recent-form Poisson model, using only completed matches before kickoff.
Market scanner

All available markets

Compare each current bookmaker odd with the fair price from the shared recent-form model.

MarketCurrent OddsFair OddsValue
1Home Win
 3.49 4.69 -25.55%
XDraw
 3.93 4.87 -19.36%
2Away Win
 1.92 1.72 +11.64%
1XDouble Chance 1X
 1.85 2.39 -22.57%
12Double Chance 12
 1.25 1.26 -0.65%
X2Double Chance X2
 1.30 1.27 +2.27%
DNB1Draw No Bet 1
 2.63 3.73 -29.41%
DNB2Draw No Bet 2
 1.45 1.37 +6.08%
Comparative form

Common-opponent evidence

How both teams performed against the same league opponents before this fixture.

3 shared opponents
Evidence overview

Away team has the better goal difference

Based on 3 shared opponents. Historical comparison only; it does not guarantee the result.
Kyrgyzaltyn
Points earned1
Goal difference-8
Odds performance 9.00
Alay Osh
Points earned1
Goal difference-3
Odds performance 9.00
Match-by-match comparisonMost recent completed result against each shared opponent
Win Draw Loss
Shared opponentKyrgyzaltynAlay Osh
Bishkek City
0–4
LossHome · 10 Oct 2026
0 pts
2–4
LossAway · 18 Sep 2026
0 pts
Alga
0–0
DrawAway · 17 Sep 2026
1 pts
1–1
DrawHome · 21 Oct 2026
1 pts
Asia Talas
0–4
LossHome · 12 Sep 2026
0 pts
1–2
LossAway · 17 Oct 2026
0 pts
League strength

Recent-form Poisson model

Recent completed results, venue-specific scoring and goals conceded estimate fair probabilities. The strongest 1X2 outcome is selected first, then the highest expected-value eligible market is identified.

FORM MODEL

Kyrgyzaltyn

Position#16
Played28
Wins1
Draws7
Losses20
Goals For20
Goals Against74
Goal Difference-54
Points10
Points / Game0.36
Win Rate3.6%
GD / Game-1.93

Alay Osh

Position#6
Played28
Wins13
Draws7
Losses8
Goals For39
Goals Against34
Goal Difference5
Points46
Points / Game1.64
Win Rate46.4%
GD / Game0.18
Calculation: Recency-weighted goals scored and conceded, separate home/away performance, league scoring baseline, sample-size shrinkage and home advantage feed a Poisson score model. Fair odds are compared with bookmaker odds to calculate expected value.
Home Probability21.33%
Draw Probability20.52%
Away Probability58.15%
Historical evidence

Comparable-odds performance

Completed matches where the same market traded within the selected odds range.

1.77 — 2.07
Wins792
Losses1,208
Voids / Draws0
Avg. Goals3.04
Historical data is descriptive. Small samples may produce unstable percentages, and missing odds or scores are excluded.
Team form

Recent completed matches

Only the recent completed matches of the two teams in this analysis are shown.

6 each
KyrgyzaltynLast 6 completed
28 Oct Kyrgyzaltyn 0 – 4 Alay Osh
23 Oct Ilbirs 1 – 1 Kyrgyzaltyn
15 Oct Kyrgyzaltyn 0 – 2 Neftchi Kochkor-Ata
10 Oct Kyrgyzaltyn 0 – 4 Bishkek City
17 Sep Alga 0 – 0 Kyrgyzaltyn
12 Sep Kyrgyzaltyn 0 – 4 Asia Talas
Alay OshLast 6 completed
28 Oct Kyrgyzaltyn 0 – 4 Alay Osh
21 Oct Alay Osh 1 – 1 Alga
17 Oct Asia Talas 2 – 1 Alay Osh
10 Oct Alay Osh 0 – 0 Abdysh-Ata
18 Sep Bishkek City 4 – 2 Alay Osh
10 Sep Alay Osh 0 – 1 Muras United