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Match Centre JAPAN - J.League Cup - First stage Analysis
SOCCERTAB ANALYSIS
JAPAN flag JAPAN - J.League Cup - First stage • 28 Oct 2026

Nagoya Grampus

HOME
80'
1:1
Live

Urawa Reds

AWAY
Selected market
Away Win
2.66
Current bookmaker price
Expected Value6.61%Vs form-based fair odds
Historical Sample2,000Comparable odds records
Historical Hit Rate32.7%Wins among decided matches
Historical ROI-12.94%Flat 1-unit calculation
Probability model

1X2 probability distribution

Bookmaker odds and their normalized 1X2 probabilities.

100% normalized
Home WinOdds 2.55
36.7%
DrawOdds 3.32
28.2%
Away WinOdds 2.66
35.2%
The displayed 1X2 probabilities show the bookmaker market. Expected value is calculated separately against the shared recent-form Poisson model, using only completed matches before kickoff.
Market scanner

All available markets

Compare each current bookmaker odd with the fair price from the shared recent-form model.

MarketCurrent OddsFair OddsValue
1Home Win
 2.55 3.81 -33.00%
XDraw
 3.32 5.65 -41.22%
2Away Win
 2.66 1.79 +49.01%
1XDouble Chance 1X
 1.45 2.27 -36.23%
12Double Chance 12
 1.30 1.22 +6.98%
X2Double Chance X2
 1.50 1.36 +10.59%
DNB1Draw No Bet 1
 1.83 3.13 -41.57%
DNB2Draw No Bet 2
 1.91 1.47 +30.02%
Comparative form

Common-opponent evidence

How both teams performed against the same league opponents before this fixture.

0 shared opponents
No common-opponent evidence yet

There are no shared opponents with completed league results recorded before this fixture. The comparison will appear when qualifying results are available.

League strength

Recent-form Poisson model

Recent completed results, venue-specific scoring and goals conceded estimate fair probabilities. The strongest 1X2 outcome is selected first, then the highest expected-value eligible market is identified.

FORM MODEL

Nagoya Grampus

Position#0
Played0
Wins0
Draws0
Losses0
Goals For0
Goals Against0
Goal Difference0
Points0
Points / Game0.00
Win Rate0.0%
GD / Game0.00

Urawa Reds

Position#0
Played0
Wins0
Draws0
Losses0
Goals For0
Goals Against0
Goal Difference0
Points0
Points / Game0.00
Win Rate0.0%
GD / Game0.00
Calculation: Recency-weighted goals scored and conceded, separate home/away performance, league scoring baseline, sample-size shrinkage and home advantage feed a Poisson score model. Fair odds are compared with bookmaker odds to calculate expected value.
Home Probability26.27%
Draw Probability17.71%
Away Probability56.02%
Historical evidence

Comparable-odds performance

Completed matches where the same market traded within the selected odds range.

2.51 — 2.81
Wins654
Losses1,346
Voids / Draws0
Avg. Goals2.90
Historical data is descriptive. Small samples may produce unstable percentages, and missing odds or scores are excluded.
Team form

Recent completed matches

Only the recent completed matches of the two teams in this analysis are shown.

6 each
Nagoya GrampusLast 6 completed
28 Oct Nagoya Grampus 1 – 1 Urawa Reds
25 Oct Nagoya Grampus 1 – 1 Yokohama F. Marinos
21 Oct Nagoya Grampus 1 – 1 Cerezo Osaka
17 Oct Kashiwa Reysol 1 – 3 Nagoya Grampus
14 Oct Nagoya Grampus 3 – 3 Okayama
11 Oct Kawasaki Frontale 1 – 2 Nagoya Grampus
Urawa RedsLast 6 completed
28 Oct Nagoya Grampus 1 – 1 Urawa Reds
25 Oct Urawa Reds 1 – 0 V-Varen Nagasaki
21 Oct Urawa Reds 3 – 2 Chiba
17 Oct Mito 0 – 1 Urawa Reds
14 Oct Yokohama FC 0 – 4 Urawa Reds
10 Oct FC Tokyo 3 – 0 Urawa Reds