ITALY - Coppa Italia Serie D
•
28 Oct 2026
Leon
HOME 88'
1:0
Live
Pro Patria
AWAYSelected market
Away Win
2.25
Current bookmaker price
Expected Value100.00%Vs form-based fair odds
Historical Sample2,000Comparable odds records
Historical Hit Rate37.2%Wins among decided matches
Historical ROI-16.77%Flat 1-unit calculation
Probability model
1X2 probability distribution
Bookmaker odds and their normalized 1X2 probabilities.
100% normalized
Home WinOdds 2.86
32.3%DrawOdds 3.48
26.6%Away WinOdds 2.25
41.1% The displayed 1X2 probabilities show the bookmaker market. Expected value is calculated separately against the shared recent-form Poisson model, using only completed matches before kickoff.
Market scanner
All available markets
Compare each current bookmaker odd with the fair price from the shared recent-form model.
| Market | Current Odds | Fair Odds | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
1Home Win |
2.86 | 2.84 | +0.83% | |
XDraw |
3.48 | 5.08 | -31.53% | |
2Away Win |
2.25 | 2.22 | +1.41% | |
1XDouble Chance 1X |
1.55 | 1.82 | -14.86% | |
12Double Chance 12 |
1.25 | 1.24 | +0.41% | |
X2Double Chance X2 |
1.35 | 1.54 | -12.59% | |
DNB1Draw No Bet 1 |
2.12 | 2.28 | -6.95% | |
DNB2Draw No Bet 2 |
1.67 | 1.78 | -6.30% |
Comparative form
Common-opponent evidence
How both teams performed against the same league opponents before this fixture.
0 shared opponents
No common-opponent evidence yet
There are no shared opponents with completed league results recorded before this fixture. The comparison will appear when qualifying results are available.
League strength
Recent-form Poisson model
Recent completed results, venue-specific scoring and goals conceded estimate fair probabilities. The strongest 1X2 outcome is selected first, then the highest expected-value eligible market is identified.
FORM MODEL
Leon
| Position | #0 |
| Played | 0 |
| Wins | 0 |
| Draws | 0 |
| Losses | 0 |
| Goals For | 0 |
| Goals Against | 0 |
| Goal Difference | 0 |
| Points | 0 |
| Points / Game | 0.00 |
| Win Rate | 0.0% |
| GD / Game | 0.00 |
Pro Patria
| Position | #0 |
| Played | 0 |
| Wins | 0 |
| Draws | 0 |
| Losses | 0 |
| Goals For | 0 |
| Goals Against | 0 |
| Goal Difference | 0 |
| Points | 0 |
| Points / Game | 0.00 |
| Win Rate | 0.0% |
| GD / Game | 0.00 |
Calculation: Recency-weighted goals scored and conceded, separate home/away performance, league scoring baseline, sample-size shrinkage and home advantage feed a Poisson score model. Fair odds are compared with bookmaker odds to calculate expected value.
Home Probability35.25%
Draw Probability19.68%
Away Probability45.07%
Historical evidence
Comparable-odds performance
Completed matches where the same market traded within the selected odds range.
2.10 — 2.40
Wins744
Losses1,256
Voids / Draws0
Avg. Goals3.12
Historical data is descriptive. Small samples may produce unstable percentages, and missing odds or scores are excluded.
Team form
Recent completed matches
Only the recent completed matches of the two teams in this analysis are shown.
6 each
LeonLast 6 completed
28 Oct
Leon
1 – 0
Pro Patria
25 Oct
Leon
0 – 4
Chievo
18 Oct
Ciserano-Bergamo
1 – 2
Leon
11 Oct
Leon
3 – 0
Pavonese
07 Oct
Real Calepina
0 – 2
Leon
04 Oct
Club Milano
1 – 2
Leon
Pro PatriaLast 6 completed
28 Oct
Leon
1 – 0
Pro Patria
25 Oct
Pro Patria
1 – 1
Correggese
18 Oct
USD Casatese
1 – 2
Pro Patria
11 Oct
Pro Patria
1 – 0
Sant'Angelo
07 Oct
Varese FC
2 – 5
Pro Patria
04 Oct
Varesina
0 – 0
Pro Patria