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Match Centre ITALY - Serie D - Group B Analysis
SOCCERTAB ANALYSIS
ITALY flag ITALY - Serie D - Group B • 28 Oct 2026

Pavonese

HOME
16:30
1:1
Finished

AC Milan U23

AWAY
Selected market
Away Win
3.52
Current bookmaker price
Expected Value12.70%Vs form-based fair odds
Historical Sample1,972Comparable odds records
Historical Hit Rate30.8%Wins among decided matches
Historical ROI8.13%Flat 1-unit calculation
Probability model

1X2 probability distribution

Bookmaker odds and their normalized 1X2 probabilities.

100% normalized
Home WinOdds 1.97
47.5%
DrawOdds 3.62
25.9%
Away WinOdds 3.52
26.6%
The displayed 1X2 probabilities show the bookmaker market. Expected value is calculated separately against the shared recent-form Poisson model, using only completed matches before kickoff.
Market scanner

All available markets

Compare each current bookmaker odd with the fair price from the shared recent-form model.

MarketCurrent OddsFair OddsValue
1Home Win
 1.97 2.26 -12.91%
XDraw
 3.62 4.28 -15.42%
2Away Win
 3.52 3.08 +14.15%
1XDouble Chance 1X
 1.30 1.48 -12.16%
12Double Chance 12
 1.25 1.30 -4.21%
X2Double Chance X2
 1.80 1.79 +0.43%
DNB1Draw No Bet 1
 1.46 1.73 -15.78%
DNB2Draw No Bet 2
 2.61 2.36 +10.45%
Comparative form

Common-opponent evidence

How both teams performed against the same league opponents before this fixture.

1 shared opponent
Evidence overview

Away team performed better by 33.3%

Based on 1 shared opponent. Historical comparison only; it does not guarantee the result.
Pavonese
Points earned0
Goal difference-2
Odds performance N/A
AC Milan U23
Points earned1
Goal difference0
Odds performance 3.00
Match-by-match comparisonMost recent completed result against each shared opponent
Win Draw Loss
Shared opponentPavoneseAC Milan U23
Club Milano
0–2
LossHome · 12 Sep 2026
0 pts
1–1
DrawHome · 25 Oct 2026
1 pts
League strength

Recent-form Poisson model

Recent completed results, venue-specific scoring and goals conceded estimate fair probabilities. The strongest 1X2 outcome is selected first, then the highest expected-value eligible market is identified.

FORM MODEL

Pavonese

Position#10
Played9
Wins3
Draws3
Losses3
Goals For9
Goals Against12
Goal Difference-3
Points12
Points / Game1.33
Win Rate33.3%
GD / Game-0.33

AC Milan U23

Position#7
Played8
Wins4
Draws2
Losses2
Goals For13
Goals Against12
Goal Difference1
Points14
Points / Game1.75
Win Rate50.0%
GD / Game0.13
Calculation: Recency-weighted goals scored and conceded, separate home/away performance, league scoring baseline, sample-size shrinkage and home advantage feed a Poisson score model. Fair odds are compared with bookmaker odds to calculate expected value.
Home Probability44.21%
Draw Probability23.36%
Away Probability32.43%
Historical evidence

Comparable-odds performance

Completed matches where the same market traded within the selected odds range.

3.37 — 3.67
Wins607
Losses1,365
Voids / Draws0
Avg. Goals3.05
Historical data is descriptive. Small samples may produce unstable percentages, and missing odds or scores are excluded.
Team form

Recent completed matches

Only the recent completed matches of the two teams in this analysis are shown.

6 each
PavoneseLast 6 completed
28 Oct Pavonese 1 – 1 AC Milan U23
25 Oct Real Calepina 1 – 1 Pavonese
18 Oct Pavonese 2 – 1 Fiorenzuola
11 Oct Leon 3 – 0 Pavonese
27 Sep Virtus Verona 0 – 1 Pavonese
20 Sep Pavonese 3 – 2 Tritium
AC Milan U23Last 6 completed
04 Nov AC Milan U23 0 – 0 Piacenza
28 Oct Pavonese 1 – 1 AC Milan U23
25 Oct AC Milan U23 1 – 1 Club Milano
18 Oct Chievo 1 – 2 AC Milan U23
14 Oct AC Milan U23 0 – 0 Piacenza
11 Oct AC Milan U23 1 – 2 Rovato Vertovese