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Match Centre ITALY - Serie B Analysis
SOCCERTAB ANALYSIS
ITALY flag ITALY - Serie B • 28 Oct 2026

Pisa

HOME
45+'
2:0
Live

Palermo

AWAY
Selected market
Away Win
3.08
Current bookmaker price
Expected Value80.86%Vs form-based fair odds
Historical Sample2,000Comparable odds records
Historical Hit Rate31.6%Wins among decided matches
Historical ROI-2.56%Flat 1-unit calculation
Probability model

1X2 probability distribution

Bookmaker odds and their normalized 1X2 probabilities.

100% normalized
Home WinOdds 2.31
41.1%
DrawOdds 3.39
28.0%
Away WinOdds 3.08
30.8%
The displayed 1X2 probabilities show the bookmaker market. Expected value is calculated separately against the shared recent-form Poisson model, using only completed matches before kickoff.
Market scanner

All available markets

Compare each current bookmaker odd with the fair price from the shared recent-form model.

MarketCurrent OddsFair OddsValue
1Home Win
 2.31 4.33 -46.64%
XDraw
 3.39 5.50 -38.37%
2Away Win
 3.08 1.70 +80.86%
1XDouble Chance 1X
 1.35 2.42 -44.27%
12Double Chance 12
 1.30 1.22 +6.36%
X2Double Chance X2
 1.60 1.30 +23.04%
DNB1Draw No Bet 1
 1.64 3.54 -53.70%
DNB2Draw No Bet 2
 2.18 1.39 +56.45%
Comparative form

Common-opponent evidence

How both teams performed against the same league opponents before this fixture.

1 shared opponent
Evidence overview

Away team performed better by 66.7%

Based on 1 shared opponent. Historical comparison only; it does not guarantee the result.
Pisa
Points earned1
Goal difference0
Odds performance 3.00
Palermo
Points earned3
Goal difference+2
Odds performance 1.00
Match-by-match comparisonMost recent completed result against each shared opponent
Win Draw Loss
Shared opponentPisaPalermo
Mantova
2–2
DrawAway · 20 Sep 2026
1 pts
2–0
WinAway · 17 Oct 2026
3 pts
League strength

Recent-form Poisson model

Recent completed results, venue-specific scoring and goals conceded estimate fair probabilities. The strongest 1X2 outcome is selected first, then the highest expected-value eligible market is identified.

FORM MODEL

Pisa

Position#6
Played8
Wins4
Draws2
Losses2
Goals For15
Goals Against10
Goal Difference5
Points14
Points / Game1.75
Win Rate50.0%
GD / Game0.63

Palermo

Position#1
Played8
Wins7
Draws1
Losses0
Goals For18
Goals Against8
Goal Difference10
Points22
Points / Game2.75
Win Rate87.5%
GD / Game1.25
Calculation: Recency-weighted goals scored and conceded, separate home/away performance, league scoring baseline, sample-size shrinkage and home advantage feed a Poisson score model. Fair odds are compared with bookmaker odds to calculate expected value.
Home Probability23.10%
Draw Probability18.18%
Away Probability58.72%
Historical evidence

Comparable-odds performance

Completed matches where the same market traded within the selected odds range.

2.93 — 3.23
Wins632
Losses1,368
Voids / Draws0
Avg. Goals2.97
Historical data is descriptive. Small samples may produce unstable percentages, and missing odds or scores are excluded.
Team form

Recent completed matches

Only the recent completed matches of the two teams in this analysis are shown.

6 each
PisaLast 6 completed
28 Oct Pisa 2 – 0 Palermo
25 Oct Verona 1 – 1 Pisa
17 Oct Pisa 3 – 1 Cremonese
10 Oct L.R. Vicenza 0 – 3 Pisa
20 Sep Mantova 2 – 2 Pisa
15 Sep Fiorentina 3 – 0 Pisa
PalermoLast 6 completed
28 Oct Pisa 2 – 0 Palermo
25 Oct Palermo 2 – 1 Carrarese
17 Oct Mantova 0 – 2 Palermo
10 Oct Empoli 2 – 4 Palermo
19 Sep Palermo 2 – 1 Padova
13 Sep Avellino 1 – 1 Palermo