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Match Centre ECUADOR - Serie B - Relegation Group Analysis
SOCCERTAB ANALYSIS
ECUADOR flag ECUADOR - Serie B - Relegation Group • 28 Oct 2026

LDU Portoviejo

HOME
45+'
0:0
Live

Cumbaya

AWAY
Selected market
Away Win
2.66
Current bookmaker price
Expected Value31.69%Vs form-based fair odds
Historical Sample2,000Comparable odds records
Historical Hit Rate33.0%Wins among decided matches
Historical ROI-12.26%Flat 1-unit calculation
Probability model

1X2 probability distribution

Bookmaker odds and their normalized 1X2 probabilities.

100% normalized
Home WinOdds 2.34
39.9%
DrawOdds 3.75
24.9%
Away WinOdds 2.66
35.1%
The displayed 1X2 probabilities show the bookmaker market. Expected value is calculated separately against the shared recent-form Poisson model, using only completed matches before kickoff.
Market scanner

All available markets

Compare each current bookmaker odd with the fair price from the shared recent-form model.

MarketCurrent OddsFair OddsValue
1Home Win
 2.34 4.51 -48.16%
XDraw
 3.75 4.66 -19.47%
2Away Win
 2.66 1.77 +49.95%
1XDouble Chance 1X
 1.45 2.29 -36.74%
12Double Chance 12
 1.25 1.27 -1.84%
X2Double Chance X2
 1.55 1.28 +20.66%
DNB1Draw No Bet 1
 1.76 3.54 -50.35%
DNB2Draw No Bet 2
 2.00 1.39 +43.58%
Comparative form

Common-opponent evidence

How both teams performed against the same league opponents before this fixture.

4 shared opponents
Evidence overview

Away team performed better by 8.3%

Based on 4 shared opponents. Historical comparison only; it does not guarantee the result.
LDU Portoviejo
Points earned6
Goal difference+1
Odds performance 2.00
Cumbaya
Points earned7
Goal difference+4
Odds performance 1.71
Match-by-match comparisonMost recent completed result against each shared opponent
Win Draw Loss
Shared opponentLDU PortoviejoCumbaya
22 de Julio
1–1
DrawAway · 21 Oct 2026
1 pts
7–1
WinHome · 15 Oct 2026
3 pts
Gualaceo
0–0
DrawHome · 17 Oct 2026
1 pts
1–1
DrawAway · 10 Oct 2026
1 pts
Dep. Santo Domingo
2–2
DrawAway · 08 Oct 2026
1 pts
0–3
LossHome · 01 Oct 2026
0 pts
EL Nacional
3–2
WinHome · 03 Oct 2026
3 pts
2–1
WinHome · 22 Oct 2026
3 pts
League strength

Recent-form Poisson model

Recent completed results, venue-specific scoring and goals conceded estimate fair probabilities. The strongest 1X2 outcome is selected first, then the highest expected-value eligible market is identified.

FORM MODEL

LDU Portoviejo

Position#3
Played31
Wins10
Draws12
Losses9
Goals For28
Goals Against29
Goal Difference-1
Points42
Points / Game1.35
Win Rate32.3%
GD / Game-0.03

Cumbaya

Position#4
Played31
Wins9
Draws13
Losses9
Goals For43
Goals Against32
Goal Difference11
Points40
Points / Game1.29
Win Rate29.0%
GD / Game0.35
Calculation: Recency-weighted goals scored and conceded, separate home/away performance, league scoring baseline, sample-size shrinkage and home advantage feed a Poisson score model. Fair odds are compared with bookmaker odds to calculate expected value.
Home Probability22.15%
Draw Probability21.48%
Away Probability56.37%
Historical evidence

Comparable-odds performance

Completed matches where the same market traded within the selected odds range.

2.51 — 2.81
Wins659
Losses1,341
Voids / Draws0
Avg. Goals2.90
Historical data is descriptive. Small samples may produce unstable percentages, and missing odds or scores are excluded.
Team form

Recent completed matches

Only the recent completed matches of the two teams in this analysis are shown.

6 each
LDU PortoviejoLast 6 completed
28 Oct LDU Portoviejo 0 – 0 Cumbaya
21 Oct 22 de Julio 1 – 1 LDU Portoviejo
17 Oct LDU Portoviejo 0 – 0 Gualaceo
08 Oct Dep. Santo Domingo 2 – 2 LDU Portoviejo
03 Oct LDU Portoviejo 3 – 2 EL Nacional
25 Sep LDU Portoviejo 2 – 2 22 de Julio
CumbayaLast 6 completed
28 Oct LDU Portoviejo 0 – 0 Cumbaya
22 Oct Cumbaya 2 – 1 EL Nacional
15 Oct Cumbaya 7 – 1 22 de Julio
10 Oct Gualaceo 1 – 1 Cumbaya
01 Oct Cumbaya 0 – 3 Dep. Santo Domingo
26 Sep EL Nacional 0 – 3 Cumbaya