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Match Centre ASIA - AFC Champions League 2 Analysis
SOCCERTAB ANALYSIS
⚽ ASIA - AFC Champions League 2 • 28 Oct 2026

Nasaf Qarshi (Uzb)

HOME
71'
0:1
Live

Al Kuwait (Kuw)

AWAY
Selected market
Away Win
3.66
Current bookmaker price
Expected Value26.09%Vs form-based fair odds
Historical Sample1,632Comparable odds records
Historical Hit Rate28.1%Wins among decided matches
Historical ROI2.45%Flat 1-unit calculation
Probability model

1X2 probability distribution

Bookmaker odds and their normalized 1X2 probabilities.

100% normalized
Home WinOdds 1.89
49.6%
DrawOdds 3.77
24.8%
Away WinOdds 3.66
25.6%
The displayed 1X2 probabilities show the bookmaker market. Expected value is calculated separately against the shared recent-form Poisson model, using only completed matches before kickoff.
Market scanner

All available markets

Compare each current bookmaker odd with the fair price from the shared recent-form model.

MarketCurrent OddsFair OddsValue
1Home Win
 1.89 2.27 -16.75%
XDraw
 3.77 4.39 -14.03%
2Away Win
 3.66 3.02 +21.33%
1XDouble Chance 1X
 1.25 1.50 -16.44%
12Double Chance 12
 1.25 1.30 -3.50%
X2Double Chance X2
 1.85 1.79 +3.52%
DNB1Draw No Bet 1
 1.42 1.75 -18.98%
DNB2Draw No Bet 2
 2.75 2.33 +18.09%
Comparative form

Common-opponent evidence

How both teams performed against the same league opponents before this fixture.

2 shared opponents
Evidence overview

Away team performed better by 33.3%

Based on 2 shared opponents. Historical comparison only; it does not guarantee the result.
Nasaf Qarshi (Uzb)
Points earned1
Goal difference-1
Odds performance 6.00
Al Kuwait (Kuw)
Points earned3
Goal difference+1
Odds performance 2.00
Match-by-match comparisonMost recent completed result against each shared opponent
Win Draw Loss
Shared opponentNasaf Qarshi (Uzb)Al Kuwait (Kuw)
Al Wahda (Uae)
1–2
LossHome · 14 Oct 2026
0 pts
2–3
LossAway · 16 Sep 2026
0 pts
Al Khalidiyah (Bhr)
0–0
DrawAway · 16 Sep 2026
1 pts
3–1
WinHome · 14 Oct 2026
3 pts
League strength

Recent-form Poisson model

Recent completed results, venue-specific scoring and goals conceded estimate fair probabilities. The strongest 1X2 outcome is selected first, then the highest expected-value eligible market is identified.

FORM MODEL

Nasaf Qarshi (Uzb)

Position#0
Played0
Wins0
Draws0
Losses0
Goals For0
Goals Against0
Goal Difference0
Points0
Points / Game0.00
Win Rate0.0%
GD / Game0.00

Al Kuwait (Kuw)

Position#0
Played0
Wins0
Draws0
Losses0
Goals For0
Goals Against0
Goal Difference0
Points0
Points / Game0.00
Win Rate0.0%
GD / Game0.00
Calculation: Recency-weighted goals scored and conceded, separate home/away performance, league scoring baseline, sample-size shrinkage and home advantage feed a Poisson score model. Fair odds are compared with bookmaker odds to calculate expected value.
Home Probability44.05%
Draw Probability22.80%
Away Probability33.15%
Historical evidence

Comparable-odds performance

Completed matches where the same market traded within the selected odds range.

3.51 — 3.81
Wins459
Losses1,173
Voids / Draws0
Avg. Goals3.00
Historical data is descriptive. Small samples may produce unstable percentages, and missing odds or scores are excluded.
Team form

Recent completed matches

Only the recent completed matches of the two teams in this analysis are shown.

6 each
Nasaf Qarshi (Uzb)Last 6 completed
28 Oct Nasaf Qarshi (Uzb) 0 – 1 Al Kuwait (Kuw)
14 Oct Nasaf Qarshi (Uzb) 1 – 2 Al Wahda (Uae)
16 Sep Al Khalidiyah (Bhr) 0 – 0 Nasaf Qarshi (Uzb)
Al Kuwait (Kuw)Last 6 completed
28 Oct Nasaf Qarshi (Uzb) 0 – 1 Al Kuwait (Kuw)
14 Oct Al Kuwait (Kuw) 3 – 1 Al Khalidiyah (Bhr)
16 Sep Al Wahda (Uae) 3 – 2 Al Kuwait (Kuw)