ARGENTINA - Reserve League - Clausura
•
28 Oct 2026
Colon Santa Fe 2
HOME 45+'
2:1
Live
San Martin S.J. 2
AWAYSelected market
Away Win
4.41
Current bookmaker price
Expected Value48.91%Vs form-based fair odds
Historical Sample1,525Comparable odds records
Historical Hit Rate27.4%Wins among decided matches
Historical ROI20.97%Flat 1-unit calculation
Probability model
1X2 probability distribution
Bookmaker odds and their normalized 1X2 probabilities.
100% normalized
Home WinOdds 1.70
55.0%DrawOdds 3.94
23.7%Away WinOdds 4.41
21.2% The displayed 1X2 probabilities show the bookmaker market. Expected value is calculated separately against the shared recent-form Poisson model, using only completed matches before kickoff.
Market scanner
All available markets
Compare each current bookmaker odd with the fair price from the shared recent-form model.
| Market | Current Odds | Fair Odds | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
1Home Win |
1.70 | 2.11 | -19.54% | |
XDraw |
3.94 | 5.29 | -25.53% | |
2Away Win |
4.41 | 2.96 | +48.91% | |
1XDouble Chance 1X |
1.20 | 1.51 | -20.52% | |
12Double Chance 12 |
1.25 | 1.23 | +1.37% | |
X2Double Chance X2 |
2.10 | 1.90 | +10.60% | |
DNB1Draw No Bet 1 |
1.30 | 1.71 | -24.13% | |
DNB2Draw No Bet 2 |
3.36 | 2.40 | +39.90% |
Comparative form
Common-opponent evidence
How both teams performed against the same league opponents before this fixture.
3 shared opponents
Colon Santa Fe 2
Points earned0
Goal difference-6
Odds performance
N/A
San Martin S.J. 2
Points earned3
Goal difference0
Odds performance
3.00
Match-by-match comparisonMost recent completed result against each shared opponent
Win Draw Loss| Shared opponent | Colon Santa Fe 2 | San Martin S.J. 2 |
|---|---|---|
Ind. Rivadavia 2 |
1–40 pts |
2–30 pts |
Deportivo Riestra 2 |
0–10 pts |
2–03 pts |
Belgrano 2 |
1–30 pts |
2–30 pts |
League strength
Recent-form Poisson model
Recent completed results, venue-specific scoring and goals conceded estimate fair probabilities. The strongest 1X2 outcome is selected first, then the highest expected-value eligible market is identified.
FORM MODEL
Colon Santa Fe 2
| Position | #0 |
| Played | 0 |
| Wins | 0 |
| Draws | 0 |
| Losses | 0 |
| Goals For | 0 |
| Goals Against | 0 |
| Goal Difference | 0 |
| Points | 0 |
| Points / Game | 0.00 |
| Win Rate | 0.0% |
| GD / Game | 0.00 |
San Martin S.J. 2
| Position | #0 |
| Played | 0 |
| Wins | 0 |
| Draws | 0 |
| Losses | 0 |
| Goals For | 0 |
| Goals Against | 0 |
| Goal Difference | 0 |
| Points | 0 |
| Points / Game | 0.00 |
| Win Rate | 0.0% |
| GD / Game | 0.00 |
Calculation: Recency-weighted goals scored and conceded, separate home/away performance, league scoring baseline, sample-size shrinkage and home advantage feed a Poisson score model. Fair odds are compared with bookmaker odds to calculate expected value.
Home Probability47.33%
Draw Probability18.90%
Away Probability33.77%
Historical evidence
Comparable-odds performance
Completed matches where the same market traded within the selected odds range.
4.26 — 4.56
Wins418
Losses1,107
Voids / Draws0
Avg. Goals3.18
Historical data is descriptive. Small samples may produce unstable percentages, and missing odds or scores are excluded.
Team form
Recent completed matches
Only the recent completed matches of the two teams in this analysis are shown.
6 each
Colon Santa Fe 2Last 6 completed
28 Oct
Colon Santa Fe 2
2 – 1
San Martin S.J. 2
21 Oct
Ferro 2
0 – 1
Colon Santa Fe 2
14 Oct
Colon Santa Fe 2
1 – 4
Ind. Rivadavia 2
09 Oct
Boca Juniors 2
1 – 0
Colon Santa Fe 2
01 Oct
Colon Santa Fe 2
0 – 1
Deportivo Riestra 2
25 Sep
Colon Santa Fe 2
2 – 1
Union de Santa Fe 2
San Martin S.J. 2Last 6 completed
28 Oct
Colon Santa Fe 2
2 – 1
San Martin S.J. 2
21 Oct
Ind. Rivadavia 2
3 – 2
San Martin S.J. 2
14 Oct
San Martin S.J. 2
2 – 0
Deportivo Riestra 2
08 Oct
Belgrano 2
3 – 2
San Martin S.J. 2
01 Oct
San Martin S.J. 2
0 – 2
Lanus 2
25 Sep
San Martin S.J. 2
0 – 1
Godoy Cruz 2