⚽SoccerTab
Log in
Back to predictions
Match Centre PORTUGAL - Liga Next Gen U23 Analysis
SOCCERTAB ANALYSIS
PORTUGAL flag PORTUGAL - Liga Next Gen U23 • 27 Oct 2026

Portimonense U23

HOME
11:00
3:2
Finished

Maritimo U23

AWAY
Selected market
Away Win
3.06
Current bookmaker price
Expected Value31.20%Vs form-based fair odds
Historical Sample2,000Comparable odds records
Historical Hit Rate31.1%Wins among decided matches
Historical ROI-5.10%Flat 1-unit calculation
Probability model

1X2 probability distribution

Bookmaker odds and their normalized 1X2 probabilities.

100% normalized
Home WinOdds 2.06
45.4%
DrawOdds 3.90
24.0%
Away WinOdds 3.06
30.6%
The displayed 1X2 probabilities show the bookmaker market. Expected value is calculated separately against the shared recent-form Poisson model, using only completed matches before kickoff.
Market scanner

All available markets

Compare each current bookmaker odd with the fair price from the shared recent-form model.

MarketCurrent OddsFair OddsValue
1Home Win
 2.06 3.20 -35.64%
XDraw
 3.90 4.37 -10.76%
2Away Win
 3.06 2.18 +40.38%
1XDouble Chance 1X
 1.35 1.85 -26.93%
12Double Chance 12
 1.25 1.30 -3.60%
X2Double Chance X2
 1.70 1.45 +16.89%
DNB1Draw No Bet 1
 1.56 2.47 -36.80%
DNB2Draw No Bet 2
 2.32 1.68 +38.01%
Comparative form

Common-opponent evidence

How both teams performed against the same league opponents before this fixture.

2 shared opponents
Evidence overview

Away team performed better by 16.7%

Based on 2 shared opponents. Historical comparison only; it does not guarantee the result.
Portimonense U23
Points earned0
Goal difference-4
Odds performance N/A
Maritimo U23
Points earned1
Goal difference-2
Odds performance 6.00
Match-by-match comparisonMost recent completed result against each shared opponent
Win Draw Loss
Shared opponentPortimonense U23Maritimo U23
Gil Vicente U23
0–2
LossAway · 15 Sep 2026
0 pts
1–1
DrawHome · 08 Sep 2026
1 pts
Felgueiras U23
0–2
LossHome · 08 Sep 2026
0 pts
0–2
LossHome · 20 Sep 2026
0 pts
League strength

Recent-form Poisson model

Recent completed results, venue-specific scoring and goals conceded estimate fair probabilities. The strongest 1X2 outcome is selected first, then the highest expected-value eligible market is identified.

FORM MODEL

Portimonense U23

Position#18
Played10
Wins1
Draws4
Losses5
Goals For8
Goals Against17
Goal Difference-9
Points7
Points / Game0.70
Win Rate10.0%
GD / Game-0.90

Maritimo U23

Position#19
Played10
Wins1
Draws3
Losses6
Goals For10
Goals Against17
Goal Difference-7
Points6
Points / Game0.60
Win Rate10.0%
GD / Game-0.70
Calculation: Recency-weighted goals scored and conceded, separate home/away performance, league scoring baseline, sample-size shrinkage and home advantage feed a Poisson score model. Fair odds are compared with bookmaker odds to calculate expected value.
Home Probability31.24%
Draw Probability22.88%
Away Probability45.87%
Historical evidence

Comparable-odds performance

Completed matches where the same market traded within the selected odds range.

2.91 — 3.21
Wins621
Losses1,379
Voids / Draws0
Avg. Goals3.00
Historical data is descriptive. Small samples may produce unstable percentages, and missing odds or scores are excluded.
Team form

Recent completed matches

Only the recent completed matches of the two teams in this analysis are shown.

6 each
Portimonense U23Last 6 completed
27 Oct Portimonense U23 3 – 2 Maritimo U23
20 Oct Rio Ave U23 4 – 0 Portimonense U23
13 Oct Portimonense U23 1 – 2 Academico Viseu U23
22 Sep Santa Clara U23 0 – 0 Portimonense U23
15 Sep Gil Vicente U23 2 – 0 Portimonense U23
08 Sep Portimonense U23 0 – 2 Felgueiras U23
Maritimo U23Last 6 completed
27 Oct Portimonense U23 3 – 2 Maritimo U23
20 Oct Maritimo U23 0 – 1 Famalicao U23
12 Oct Braga U23 1 – 3 Maritimo U23
25 Sep Maritimo U23 1 – 3 Benfica U23
20 Sep Maritimo U23 0 – 2 Felgueiras U23
14 Sep Vizela U23 2 – 1 Maritimo U23