NETHERLANDS - Divisie 1 U21 - Fall Season
•
27 Oct 2026
FC Twente/Heracles U21
HOME 11:30
VS
MATCH PREVIEW
Zwolle U21
AWAYSelected market
Away Win
3.09
Current bookmaker price
Expected Value100.00%Vs form-based fair odds
Historical Sample2,000Comparable odds records
Historical Hit Rate31.8%Wins among decided matches
Historical ROI-1.60%Flat 1-unit calculation
Probability model
1X2 probability distribution
Bookmaker odds and their normalized 1X2 probabilities.
100% normalized
Home WinOdds 1.90
48.7%DrawOdds 4.32
21.4%Away WinOdds 3.09
29.9% The displayed 1X2 probabilities show the bookmaker market. Expected value is calculated separately against the shared recent-form Poisson model, using only completed matches before kickoff.
Market scanner
All available markets
Compare each current bookmaker odd with the fair price from the shared recent-form model.
| Market | Current Odds | Fair Odds | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
1Home Win |
1.90 | 2.79 | -31.82% | |
XDraw |
4.32 | 4.41 | -2.06% | |
2Away Win |
3.09 | 2.41 | +28.07% | |
1XDouble Chance 1X |
1.30 | 1.71 | -23.88% | |
12Double Chance 12 |
1.20 | 1.29 | -7.21% | |
X2Double Chance X2 |
1.80 | 1.56 | +15.41% | |
DNB1Draw No Bet 1 |
1.51 | 2.16 | -29.93% | |
DNB2Draw No Bet 2 |
2.46 | 1.87 | +31.85% |
League strength
Recent-form Poisson model
Recent completed results, venue-specific scoring and goals conceded estimate fair probabilities. The strongest 1X2 outcome is selected first, then the highest expected-value eligible market is identified.
FORM MODEL
FC Twente/Heracles U21
| Position | #6 |
| Played | 7 |
| Wins | 2 |
| Draws | 2 |
| Losses | 3 |
| Goals For | 8 |
| Goals Against | 14 |
| Goal Difference | -6 |
| Points | 8 |
| Points / Game | 1.14 |
| Win Rate | 28.6% |
| GD / Game | -0.86 |
Zwolle U21
| Position | #2 |
| Played | 7 |
| Wins | 4 |
| Draws | 0 |
| Losses | 3 |
| Goals For | 9 |
| Goals Against | 9 |
| Goal Difference | 0 |
| Points | 12 |
| Points / Game | 1.71 |
| Win Rate | 57.1% |
| GD / Game | 0.00 |
Calculation: Recency-weighted goals scored and conceded, separate home/away performance, league scoring baseline, sample-size shrinkage and home advantage feed a Poisson score model. Fair odds are compared with bookmaker odds to calculate expected value.
Home Probability35.88%
Draw Probability22.67%
Away Probability41.45%
Historical evidence
Comparable-odds performance
Completed matches where the same market traded within the selected odds range.
2.94 — 3.24
Wins635
Losses1,365
Voids / Draws0
Avg. Goals2.94
Historical data is descriptive. Small samples may produce unstable percentages, and missing odds or scores are excluded.
Team form
Recent completed matches
Only the recent completed matches of the two teams in this analysis are shown.
6 each
FC Twente/Heracles U21Last 6 completed
24 Oct
FC Twente/Heracles U21
1 – 1
Graafschap U21
10 Oct
Willem II U21
1 – 3
FC Twente/Heracles U21
26 Sep
Graafschap U21
0 – 2
FC Twente/Heracles U21
25 Sep
Graafschap U21
0 – 2
FC Twente/Heracles U21
19 Sep
FC Twente/Heracles U21
1 – 4
Cambuur U21
12 Sep
G.A. Eagles U21
1 – 1
FC Twente/Heracles U21
Zwolle U21Last 6 completed
24 Oct
G.A. Eagles U21
1 – 2
Zwolle U21
10 Oct
Zwolle U21
0 – 1
Cambuur U21
26 Sep
Zwolle U21
2 – 0
G.A. Eagles U21
19 Sep
Feyenoord U21
4 – 0
Zwolle U21
12 Sep
Groningen U21
0 – 3
Zwolle U21