ITALY - Serie C - Group C
•
27 Oct 2026
Inter U23
HOME 13:30
VS
MATCH PREVIEW
Scafatese
AWAYSelected market
Away Win
3.27
Current bookmaker price
Expected Value26.33%Vs form-based fair odds
Historical Sample2,000Comparable odds records
Historical Hit Rate31.3%Wins among decided matches
Historical ROI2.20%Flat 1-unit calculation
Probability model
1X2 probability distribution
Bookmaker odds and their normalized 1X2 probabilities.
100% normalized
Home WinOdds 2.06
43.8%DrawOdds 3.16
28.6%Away WinOdds 3.27
27.6% The displayed 1X2 probabilities show the bookmaker market. Expected value is calculated separately against the shared recent-form Poisson model, using only completed matches before kickoff.
Market scanner
All available markets
Compare each current bookmaker odd with the fair price from the shared recent-form model.
| Market | Current Odds | Fair Odds | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
1Home Win |
2.06 | 2.69 | -23.46% | |
XDraw |
3.16 | 4.97 | -36.41% | |
2Away Win |
3.27 | 2.34 | +39.71% | |
1XDouble Chance 1X |
1.25 | 1.75 | -28.40% | |
12Double Chance 12 |
1.25 | 1.25 | -0.15% | |
X2Double Chance X2 |
1.60 | 1.59 | +0.55% | |
DNB1Draw No Bet 1 |
1.52 | 2.15 | -29.30% | |
DNB2Draw No Bet 2 |
2.42 | 1.87 | +29.44% |
League strength
Recent-form Poisson model
Recent completed results, venue-specific scoring and goals conceded estimate fair probabilities. The strongest 1X2 outcome is selected first, then the highest expected-value eligible market is identified.
FORM MODEL
Inter U23
| Position | #11 |
| Played | 10 |
| Wins | 4 |
| Draws | 2 |
| Losses | 4 |
| Goals For | 19 |
| Goals Against | 18 |
| Goal Difference | 1 |
| Points | 14 |
| Points / Game | 1.40 |
| Win Rate | 40.0% |
| GD / Game | 0.10 |
Scafatese
| Position | #7 |
| Played | 10 |
| Wins | 4 |
| Draws | 5 |
| Losses | 1 |
| Goals For | 16 |
| Goals Against | 13 |
| Goal Difference | 3 |
| Points | 17 |
| Points / Game | 1.70 |
| Win Rate | 40.0% |
| GD / Game | 0.30 |
Calculation: Recency-weighted goals scored and conceded, separate home/away performance, league scoring baseline, sample-size shrinkage and home advantage feed a Poisson score model. Fair odds are compared with bookmaker odds to calculate expected value.
Home Probability37.15%
Draw Probability20.12%
Away Probability42.72%
Historical evidence
Comparable-odds performance
Completed matches where the same market traded within the selected odds range.
3.12 — 3.42
Wins625
Losses1,375
Voids / Draws0
Avg. Goals3.01
Historical data is descriptive. Small samples may produce unstable percentages, and missing odds or scores are excluded.
Team form
Recent completed matches
Only the recent completed matches of the two teams in this analysis are shown.
6 each
Inter U23Last 6 completed
24 Oct
Inter U23
1 – 1
Sorrento
17 Oct
Inter U23
2 – 4
Monopoli
13 Oct
Giugliano
0 – 4
Inter U23
10 Oct
Savoia
2 – 1
Inter U23
20 Sep
Inter U23
3 – 2
Foggia
14 Sep
Crotone
0 – 2
Inter U23
ScafateseLast 6 completed
24 Oct
Scafatese
1 – 0
Barletta
17 Oct
Salernitana
2 – 2
Scafatese
17 Oct
Salernitana
3 – 2
Scafatese
11 Oct
Scafatese
3 – 2
Sorrento
27 Sep
Scafatese
2 – 0
Altamura
19 Sep
Cosenza
1 – 1
Scafatese