IRAN - Azadegan League
•
27 Oct 2026
Novin Ahvaz
HOME 13:30
VS
MATCH PREVIEW
Besat Kermanshah
AWAYSelected market
Away Win
2.63
Current bookmaker price
Expected Value-5.94%Vs form-based fair odds
Historical Sample2,000Comparable odds records
Historical Hit Rate32.3%Wins among decided matches
Historical ROI-14.99%Flat 1-unit calculation
Probability model
1X2 probability distribution
Bookmaker odds and their normalized 1X2 probabilities.
100% normalized
Home WinOdds 2.45
36.4%DrawOdds 2.99
29.8%Away WinOdds 2.63
33.9% The displayed 1X2 probabilities show the bookmaker market. Expected value is calculated separately against the shared recent-form Poisson model, using only completed matches before kickoff.
Market scanner
All available markets
Compare each current bookmaker odd with the fair price from the shared recent-form model.
| Market | Current Odds | Fair Odds | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
1Home Win |
2.45 | 2.68 | -8.44% | |
XDraw |
2.99 | 3.72 | -19.67% | |
2Away Win |
2.63 | 2.80 | -5.94% | |
1XDouble Chance 1X |
1.35 | 1.56 | -13.28% | |
12Double Chance 12 |
1.25 | 1.37 | -8.58% | |
X2Double Chance X2 |
1.40 | 1.60 | -12.32% | |
DNB1Draw No Bet 1 |
1.81 | 1.96 | -7.51% | |
DNB2Draw No Bet 2 |
1.94 | 2.04 | -5.13% |
League strength
Recent-form Poisson model
Recent completed results, venue-specific scoring and goals conceded estimate fair probabilities. The strongest 1X2 outcome is selected first, then the highest expected-value eligible market is identified.
FORM MODEL
Novin Ahvaz
| Position | #10 |
| Played | 6 |
| Wins | 1 |
| Draws | 4 |
| Losses | 1 |
| Goals For | 7 |
| Goals Against | 7 |
| Goal Difference | 0 |
| Points | 7 |
| Points / Game | 1.17 |
| Win Rate | 16.7% |
| GD / Game | 0.00 |
Besat Kermanshah
| Position | #9 |
| Played | 6 |
| Wins | 2 |
| Draws | 1 |
| Losses | 3 |
| Goals For | 7 |
| Goals Against | 6 |
| Goal Difference | 1 |
| Points | 7 |
| Points / Game | 1.17 |
| Win Rate | 33.3% |
| GD / Game | 0.17 |
Calculation: Recency-weighted goals scored and conceded, separate home/away performance, league scoring baseline, sample-size shrinkage and home advantage feed a Poisson score model. Fair odds are compared with bookmaker odds to calculate expected value.
Home Probability37.37%
Draw Probability26.87%
Away Probability35.76%
Historical evidence
Comparable-odds performance
Completed matches where the same market traded within the selected odds range.
2.48 — 2.78
Wins645
Losses1,355
Voids / Draws0
Avg. Goals2.88
Historical data is descriptive. Small samples may produce unstable percentages, and missing odds or scores are excluded.
Team form
Recent completed matches
Only the recent completed matches of the two teams in this analysis are shown.
6 each
Novin AhvazLast 6 completed
20 Oct
Havadar SC
0 – 1
Novin Ahvaz
11 Oct
Novin Ahvaz
1 – 1
Naft M.I.S
04 Oct
Naft Gachsaran
1 – 1
Novin Ahvaz
27 Sep
Novin Ahvaz
2 – 2
Shahin Bandar Ameri
21 Sep
Shenavarsazi Qeshm
2 – 2
Novin Ahvaz
14 Sep
Novin Ahvaz
0 – 1
Niroye Zamini
Besat KermanshahLast 6 completed
20 Oct
Besat Kermanshah
1 – 2
Pars Janoobi Jam
12 Oct
Ario Eslamshahr
2 – 1
Besat Kermanshah
05 Oct
Besat Kermanshah
2 – 1
Naft Bandar Abbas
29 Sep
Mes Rafsanjan
1 – 0
Besat Kermanshah
22 Sep
Havadar SC
0 – 3
Besat Kermanshah
16 Sep
Besat Kermanshah
0 – 0
Naft Gachsaran