ETHIOPIA - Premier League
•
27 Oct 2026
Ethiopian Insurance
HOME 21'
0:1
Live
Mechal
AWAYSelected market
Away Win
2.55
Current bookmaker price
Expected Value3.85%Vs form-based fair odds
Historical Sample2,000Comparable odds records
Historical Hit Rate33.4%Wins among decided matches
Historical ROI-14.31%Flat 1-unit calculation
Probability model
1X2 probability distribution
Bookmaker odds and their normalized 1X2 probabilities.
100% normalized
Home WinOdds 2.99
31.2%DrawOdds 2.91
32.1%Away WinOdds 2.55
36.6% The displayed 1X2 probabilities show the bookmaker market. Expected value is calculated separately against the shared recent-form Poisson model, using only completed matches before kickoff.
Market scanner
All available markets
Compare each current bookmaker odd with the fair price from the shared recent-form model.
| Market | Current Odds | Fair Odds | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
1Home Win |
2.99 | 4.34 | -31.04% | |
XDraw |
2.91 | 2.76 | +5.37% | |
2Away Win |
2.55 | 2.46 | +3.85% | |
1XDouble Chance 1X |
1.45 | 1.69 | -14.05% | |
12Double Chance 12 |
1.40 | 1.57 | -10.69% | |
X2Double Chance X2 |
1.35 | 1.30 | +3.87% | |
DNB1Draw No Bet 1 |
2.03 | 2.77 | -26.61% | |
DNB2Draw No Bet 2 |
1.73 | 1.57 | +10.45% |
League strength
Recent-form Poisson model
Recent completed results, venue-specific scoring and goals conceded estimate fair probabilities. The strongest 1X2 outcome is selected first, then the highest expected-value eligible market is identified.
FORM MODEL
Ethiopian Insurance
| Position | #10 |
| Played | 2 |
| Wins | 1 |
| Draws | 1 |
| Losses | 0 |
| Goals For | 3 |
| Goals Against | 1 |
| Goal Difference | 2 |
| Points | 4 |
| Points / Game | 2.00 |
| Win Rate | 50.0% |
| GD / Game | 1.00 |
Mechal
| Position | #5 |
| Played | 3 |
| Wins | 2 |
| Draws | 0 |
| Losses | 1 |
| Goals For | 2 |
| Goals Against | 1 |
| Goal Difference | 1 |
| Points | 6 |
| Points / Game | 2.00 |
| Win Rate | 66.7% |
| GD / Game | 0.33 |
Calculation: Recency-weighted goals scored and conceded, separate home/away performance, league scoring baseline, sample-size shrinkage and home advantage feed a Poisson score model. Fair odds are compared with bookmaker odds to calculate expected value.
Home Probability23.06%
Draw Probability36.21%
Away Probability40.73%
Historical evidence
Comparable-odds performance
Completed matches where the same market traded within the selected odds range.
2.40 — 2.70
Wins667
Losses1,333
Voids / Draws0
Avg. Goals2.93
Historical data is descriptive. Small samples may produce unstable percentages, and missing odds or scores are excluded.
Team form
Recent completed matches
Only the recent completed matches of the two teams in this analysis are shown.
6 each
Ethiopian InsuranceLast 6 completed
27 Oct
Ethiopian Insurance
0 – 1
Mechal
17 Oct
Hawassa
1 – 1
Ethiopian Insurance
11 Oct
Gamo Chencha
0 – 2
Ethiopian Insurance
MechalLast 6 completed
27 Oct
Ethiopian Insurance
0 – 1
Mechal
22 Oct
Gamo Chencha
0 – 1
Mechal
18 Oct
Mechal
0 – 1
Ethiopia Nigd Bank
11 Oct
Hawassa
0 – 1
Mechal