ENGLAND - Premier League U18
•
27 Oct 2026
Burnley U18
HOME 13:00
VS
MATCH PREVIEW
Manchester Utd U18
AWAYSelected market
Away Win
11.10
Current bookmaker price
Expected Value100.00%Vs form-based fair odds
Historical Sample86Comparable odds records
Historical Hit Rate19.8%Wins among decided matches
Historical ROI118.49%Flat 1-unit calculation
Probability model
1X2 probability distribution
Bookmaker odds and their normalized 1X2 probabilities.
100% normalized
Home WinOdds 1.16
77.8%DrawOdds 6.40
14.1%Away WinOdds 11.10
8.1% The displayed 1X2 probabilities show the bookmaker market. Expected value is calculated separately against the shared recent-form Poisson model, using only completed matches before kickoff.
Market scanner
All available markets
Compare each current bookmaker odd with the fair price from the shared recent-form model.
| Market | Current Odds | Fair Odds | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
1Home Win |
1.16 | 1.77 | -34.38% | |
XDraw |
6.40 | 5.24 | +22.08% | |
2Away Win |
11.10 | 4.11 | +100.00% | |
1XDouble Chance 1X |
1.00 | 1.32 | -24.36% | |
12Double Chance 12 |
1.05 | 1.24 | -15.03% | |
X2Double Chance X2 |
4.05 | 2.30 | +75.91% | |
DNB1Draw No Bet 1 |
1.03 | 1.43 | -28.00% | |
DNB2Draw No Bet 2 |
9.88 | 3.32 | +100.00% |
League strength
Recent-form Poisson model
Recent completed results, venue-specific scoring and goals conceded estimate fair probabilities. The strongest 1X2 outcome is selected first, then the highest expected-value eligible market is identified.
FORM MODEL
Burnley U18
| Position | #0 |
| Played | 0 |
| Wins | 0 |
| Draws | 0 |
| Losses | 0 |
| Goals For | 0 |
| Goals Against | 0 |
| Goal Difference | 0 |
| Points | 0 |
| Points / Game | 0.00 |
| Win Rate | 0.0% |
| GD / Game | 0.00 |
Manchester Utd U18
| Position | #0 |
| Played | 0 |
| Wins | 0 |
| Draws | 0 |
| Losses | 0 |
| Goals For | 0 |
| Goals Against | 0 |
| Goal Difference | 0 |
| Points | 0 |
| Points / Game | 0.00 |
| Win Rate | 0.0% |
| GD / Game | 0.00 |
Calculation: Recency-weighted goals scored and conceded, separate home/away performance, league scoring baseline, sample-size shrinkage and home advantage feed a Poisson score model. Fair odds are compared with bookmaker odds to calculate expected value.
Home Probability56.57%
Draw Probability19.08%
Away Probability24.36%
Historical evidence
Comparable-odds performance
Completed matches where the same market traded within the selected odds range.
10.95 — 11.25
Wins17
Losses69
Voids / Draws0
Avg. Goals3.47
Historical data is descriptive. Small samples may produce unstable percentages, and missing odds or scores are excluded.
Team form
Recent completed matches
Only the recent completed matches of the two teams in this analysis are shown.
6 each
Burnley U18Last 6 completed
24 Oct
Burnley U18
4 – 0
Blackburn U18
17 Oct
Newcastle Utd U18
3 – 0
Burnley U18
19 Sep
Burnley U18
2 – 2
Nottingham U18
12 Sep
Liverpool U18
4 – 2
Burnley U18
Manchester Utd U18Last 6 completed
24 Oct
Manchester Utd U18
6 – 3
Liverpool U18
17 Oct
Nottingham U18
1 – 1
Manchester Utd U18
19 Sep
Manchester Utd U18
6 – 0
Wolves U18
12 Sep
Newcastle Utd U18
0 – 2
Manchester Utd U18