⚽SoccerTab
Log in
Back to predictions
Match Centre ARGENTINA - Liga Profesional - Clausura Analysis
SOCCERTAB ANALYSIS
ARGENTINA flag ARGENTINA - Liga Profesional - Clausura • 27 Oct 2026

Instituto

HOME
00:15
1:0
Finished

Dep. Riestra

AWAY
Selected market
Away Win
5.83
Current bookmaker price
Expected Value23.97%Vs form-based fair odds
Historical Sample368Comparable odds records
Historical Hit Rate22.6%Wins among decided matches
Historical ROI31.67%Flat 1-unit calculation
Probability model

1X2 probability distribution

Bookmaker odds and their normalized 1X2 probabilities.

100% normalized
Home WinOdds 1.78
53.9%
DrawOdds 3.23
29.7%
Away WinOdds 5.83
16.4%
The displayed 1X2 probabilities show the bookmaker market. Expected value is calculated separately against the shared recent-form Poisson model, using only completed matches before kickoff.
Market scanner

All available markets

Compare each current bookmaker odd with the fair price from the shared recent-form model.

MarketCurrent OddsFair OddsValue
1Home Win
 1.78 1.84 -3.03%
XDraw
 3.23 4.10 -21.19%
2Away Win
 5.83 4.73 +23.14%
1XDouble Chance 1X
 1.15 1.27 -9.29%
12Double Chance 12
 1.35 1.32 +2.06%
X2Double Chance X2
 2.10 2.20 -4.41%
DNB1Draw No Bet 1
 1.22 1.39 -12.08%
DNB2Draw No Bet 2
 4.00 3.58 +11.75%
League strength

Recent-form Poisson model

Recent completed results, venue-specific scoring and goals conceded estimate fair probabilities. The strongest 1X2 outcome is selected first, then the highest expected-value eligible market is identified.

FORM MODEL

Instituto

Position#0
Played0
Wins0
Draws0
Losses0
Goals For0
Goals Against0
Goal Difference0
Points0
Points / Game0.00
Win Rate0.0%
GD / Game0.00

Dep. Riestra

Position#0
Played0
Wins0
Draws0
Losses0
Goals For0
Goals Against0
Goal Difference0
Points0
Points / Game0.00
Win Rate0.0%
GD / Game0.00
Calculation: Recency-weighted goals scored and conceded, separate home/away performance, league scoring baseline, sample-size shrinkage and home advantage feed a Poisson score model. Fair odds are compared with bookmaker odds to calculate expected value.
Home Probability54.48%
Draw Probability24.40%
Away Probability21.12%
Historical evidence

Comparable-odds performance

Completed matches where the same market traded within the selected odds range.

5.68 — 5.98
Wins83
Losses285
Voids / Draws0
Avg. Goals3.10
Historical data is descriptive. Small samples may produce unstable percentages, and missing odds or scores are excluded.
Team form

Recent completed matches

Only the recent completed matches of the two teams in this analysis are shown.

6 each
InstitutoLast 6 completed
27 Oct Instituto 1 – 0 Dep. Riestra
17 Oct Defensa y Justicia 0 – 1 Instituto
10 Oct Instituto 2 – 2 Boca Juniors
03 Oct Independiente 1 – 4 Instituto
20 Sep Instituto 3 – 1 Talleres Cordoba
15 Sep Instituto 2 – 1 Estudiantes Rio Cuarto
Dep. RiestraLast 6 completed
27 Oct Instituto 1 – 0 Dep. Riestra
20 Oct Dep. Riestra 1 – 1 Union de Santa Fe
11 Oct San Lorenzo 1 – 0 Dep. Riestra
05 Oct Dep. Riestra 1 – 1 Central Cordoba
19 Sep Gimnasia Mendoza 0 – 0 Dep. Riestra
15 Sep Dep. Riestra 0 – 3 Lanus