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Match Centre BRAZIL - Pernambucano - First stage Analysis
SOCCERTAB ANALYSIS
BRAZIL flag BRAZIL - Pernambucano - First stage • 28 Oct 2026

Petrolina

HOME
90+'
2:1
Live

1º de Maio

AWAY
Selected market
Double Chance 1X
1.15
Current bookmaker price
Expected Value-22.96%Vs form-based fair odds
Historical Sample2,000Comparable odds records
Historical Hit Rate78.6%Wins among decided matches
Historical ROI-7.48%Flat 1-unit calculation
Probability model

1X2 probability distribution

Bookmaker odds and their normalized 1X2 probabilities.

100% normalized
Home WinOdds 1.62
57.1%
DrawOdds 4.02
23.0%
Away WinOdds 4.64
19.9%
The displayed 1X2 probabilities show the bookmaker market. Expected value is calculated separately against the shared recent-form Poisson model, using only completed matches before kickoff.
Market scanner

All available markets

Compare each current bookmaker odd with the fair price from the shared recent-form model.

MarketCurrent OddsFair OddsValue
1Home Win
 1.62 1.91 -15.32%
XDraw
 4.02 3.82 +5.31%
2Away Win
 4.64 4.64 -0.08%
1XDouble Chance 1X
 1.15 1.27 -9.76% Selected
12Double Chance 12
 1.20 1.35 -11.43%
X2Double Chance X2
 2.15 2.10 +2.62%
DNB1Draw No Bet 1
 1.26 1.41 -10.76%
DNB2Draw No Bet 2
 3.61 3.43 +5.33%
Comparative form

Common-opponent evidence

How both teams performed against the same league opponents before this fixture.

1 shared opponent
Evidence overview

Home team performed better by 66.7%

Based on 1 shared opponent. Historical comparison only; it does not guarantee the result.
Petrolina
Points earned3
Goal difference+1
Odds performance 1.00
1º de Maio
Points earned1
Goal difference0
Odds performance 3.00
Match-by-match comparisonMost recent completed result against each shared opponent
Win Draw Loss
Shared opponentPetrolina1º de Maio
Salgueiro
1–0
WinAway · 25 Oct 2026
3 pts
0–0
DrawHome · 21 Oct 2026
1 pts
League strength

Recent-form Poisson model

Recent completed results, venue-specific scoring and goals conceded estimate fair probabilities. The strongest 1X2 outcome is selected first, then the highest expected-value eligible market is identified.

FORM MODEL

Petrolina

Position#0
Played0
Wins0
Draws0
Losses0
Goals For0
Goals Against0
Goal Difference0
Points0
Points / Game0.00
Win Rate0.0%
GD / Game0.00

1º de Maio

Position#0
Played0
Wins0
Draws0
Losses0
Goals For0
Goals Against0
Goal Difference0
Points0
Points / Game0.00
Win Rate0.0%
GD / Game0.00
Calculation: Recency-weighted goals scored and conceded, separate home/away performance, league scoring baseline, sample-size shrinkage and home advantage feed a Poisson score model. Fair odds are compared with bookmaker odds to calculate expected value.
Home Probability52.27%
Draw Probability26.20%
Away Probability21.53%
Historical evidence

Comparable-odds performance

Completed matches where the same market traded within the selected odds range.

1.01 — 1.30
Wins1,571
Losses429
Voids / Draws0
Avg. Goals3.10
Historical data is descriptive. Small samples may produce unstable percentages, and missing odds or scores are excluded.
Team form

Recent completed matches

Only the recent completed matches of the two teams in this analysis are shown.

6 each
PetrolinaLast 6 completed
28 Oct Petrolina 2 – 1 1º de Maio
25 Oct Salgueiro 0 – 1 Petrolina
24 Oct Salgueiro 0 – 1 Petrolina
17 Oct Petrolina 1 – 0 Afogados da Ingazeira
1º de MaioLast 6 completed
28 Oct Petrolina 2 – 1 1º de Maio
24 Oct Facilnet 2 – 1 1º de Maio
21 Oct 1º de Maio 0 – 0 Salgueiro