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Match Centre SCOTLAND - Lowland League Analysis
SOCCERTAB ANALYSIS
SCOTLAND - Lowland League • 27 Oct 2026

Newton Stewart

HOME
19:45
VS
Postponed

Gretna 2008

AWAY
Selected market
Double Chance 12
1.10
Current bookmaker price
Expected Value-10.94%Vs form-based fair odds
Historical Sample2,000Comparable odds records
Historical Hit Rate77.2%Wins among decided matches
Historical ROI-8.19%Flat 1-unit calculation
Probability model

1X2 probability distribution

Bookmaker odds and their normalized 1X2 probabilities.

100% normalized
Home WinOdds 7.28
12.7%
DrawOdds 5.46
17.0%
Away WinOdds 1.32
70.3%
The displayed 1X2 probabilities show the bookmaker market. Expected value is calculated separately against the shared recent-form Poisson model, using only completed matches before kickoff.
Market scanner

All available markets

Compare each current bookmaker odd with the fair price from the shared recent-form model.

MarketCurrent OddsFair OddsValue
1Home Win
 7.28 3.01 +100.00%
XDraw
 5.46 5.25 +3.96%
2Away Win
 1.32 2.10 -37.01%
1XDouble Chance 1X
 3.10 1.91 +62.08%
12Double Chance 12
 1.10 1.24 -10.94%
X2Double Chance X2
 1.05 1.50 -29.90%
DNB1Draw No Bet 1
 6.09 2.44 +100.00%
DNB2Draw No Bet 2
 1.10 1.70 -35.17%
Comparative form

Common-opponent evidence

How both teams performed against the same league opponents before this fixture.

2 shared opponents
Evidence overview

Away team has the better goal difference

Based on 2 shared opponents. Historical comparison only; it does not guarantee the result.
Newton Stewart
Points earned3
Goal difference-2
Odds performance 2.00
Gretna 2008
Points earned3
Goal difference+3
Odds performance 2.00
Match-by-match comparisonMost recent completed result against each shared opponent
Win Draw Loss
Shared opponentNewton StewartGretna 2008
Cumbernauld Colts
2–5
LossAway · 17 Oct 2026
0 pts
2–3
LossAway · 15 Sep 2026
0 pts
Dalbeattie Star
2–1
WinHome · 19 Sep 2026
3 pts
5–1
WinAway · 26 Sep 2026
3 pts
League strength

Recent-form Poisson model

Recent completed results, venue-specific scoring and goals conceded estimate fair probabilities. The strongest 1X2 outcome is selected first, then the highest expected-value eligible market is identified.

FORM MODEL

Newton Stewart

Position#0
Played0
Wins0
Draws0
Losses0
Goals For0
Goals Against0
Goal Difference0
Points0
Points / Game0.00
Win Rate0.0%
GD / Game0.00

Gretna 2008

Position#0
Played0
Wins0
Draws0
Losses0
Goals For0
Goals Against0
Goal Difference0
Points0
Points / Game0.00
Win Rate0.0%
GD / Game0.00
Calculation: Recency-weighted goals scored and conceded, separate home/away performance, league scoring baseline, sample-size shrinkage and home advantage feed a Poisson score model. Fair odds are compared with bookmaker odds to calculate expected value.
Home Probability33.24%
Draw Probability19.04%
Away Probability47.72%
Historical evidence

Comparable-odds performance

Completed matches where the same market traded within the selected odds range.

1.01 — 1.25
Wins1,544
Losses456
Voids / Draws0
Avg. Goals3.24
Historical data is descriptive. Small samples may produce unstable percentages, and missing odds or scores are excluded.
Team form

Recent completed matches

Only the recent completed matches of the two teams in this analysis are shown.

6 each
Newton StewartLast 6 completed
17 Oct Cumbernauld Colts 5 – 2 Newton Stewart
03 Oct Newton Stewart 1 – 3 Johnstone Burgh
26 Sep Caledonian Braves 5 – 0 Newton Stewart
19 Sep Newton Stewart 2 – 1 Dalbeattie Star
12 Sep Newton Stewart 1 – 5 Troon FC
Gretna 2008Last 6 completed
27 Oct Postponed Newton Stewart 1 – 1 Gretna 2008
24 Oct Gretna 2008 0 – 3 Cumnock Juniors
17 Oct Gretna 2008 2 – 2 Johnstone Burgh
03 Oct Nairn County 0 – 1 Gretna 2008
26 Sep Dalbeattie Star 1 – 5 Gretna 2008
19 Sep Gretna 2008 3 – 1 Celtic B