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Match Centre SLOVENIA - 3. SNL - East Analysis
SOCCERTAB ANALYSIS
SLOVENIA flag SLOVENIA - 3. SNL - East • 28 Oct 2026

Hajdina

HOME
13:00
0:2
Finished

NK Ormoz

AWAY
Selected market
Double Chance 12
1.20
Current bookmaker price
Expected Value-3.90%Vs form-based fair odds
Historical Sample2,000Comparable odds records
Historical Hit Rate75.8%Wins among decided matches
Historical ROI-7.68%Flat 1-unit calculation
Probability model

1X2 probability distribution

Bookmaker odds and their normalized 1X2 probabilities.

100% normalized
Home WinOdds 2.47
37.5%
DrawOdds 3.81
24.3%
Away WinOdds 2.42
38.2%
The displayed 1X2 probabilities show the bookmaker market. Expected value is calculated separately against the shared recent-form Poisson model, using only completed matches before kickoff.
Market scanner

All available markets

Compare each current bookmaker odd with the fair price from the shared recent-form model.

MarketCurrent OddsFair OddsValue
1Home Win
 2.47 1.88 +31.60%
XDraw
 3.81 5.02 -24.11%
2Away Win
 2.42 3.73 -35.14%
1XDouble Chance 1X
 1.50 1.37 +9.80%
12Double Chance 12
 1.20 1.25 -3.90%
X2Double Chance X2
 1.50 2.14 -29.92%
DNB1Draw No Bet 1
 1.89 1.50 +25.74%
DNB2Draw No Bet 2
 1.85 2.99 -38.08%
Comparative form

Common-opponent evidence

How both teams performed against the same league opponents before this fixture.

5 shared opponents
Evidence overview

Away team performed better by 6.7%

Based on 5 shared opponents. Historical comparison only; it does not guarantee the result.
Hajdina
Points earned8
Goal difference+3
Odds performance 1.88
NK Ormoz
Points earned9
Goal difference+3
Odds performance 1.67
Match-by-match comparisonMost recent completed result against each shared opponent
Win Draw Loss
Shared opponentHajdinaNK Ormoz
Sampion Celje
2–0
WinAway · 10 Oct 2026
3 pts
2–0
WinHome · 17 Oct 2026
3 pts
Odranci
0–0
DrawHome · 03 Oct 2026
1 pts
0–3
LossAway · 10 Oct 2026
0 pts
Dobrovce
3–0
WinAway · 30 Sep 2026
3 pts
4–3
WinHome · 03 Oct 2026
3 pts
Fuzinar
2–4
LossHome · 19 Sep 2026
0 pts
3–4
LossAway · 26 Sep 2026
0 pts
Limbus-Pekre
1–1
DrawAway · 12 Sep 2026
1 pts
4–0
WinHome · 19 Sep 2026
3 pts
League strength

Recent-form Poisson model

Recent completed results, venue-specific scoring and goals conceded estimate fair probabilities. The strongest 1X2 outcome is selected first, then the highest expected-value eligible market is identified.

FORM MODEL

Hajdina

Position#7
Played11
Wins4
Draws4
Losses3
Goals For18
Goals Against17
Goal Difference1
Points16
Points / Game1.45
Win Rate36.4%
GD / Game0.09

NK Ormoz

Position#3
Played11
Wins7
Draws1
Losses3
Goals For25
Goals Against17
Goal Difference8
Points22
Points / Game2.00
Win Rate63.6%
GD / Game0.73
Calculation: Recency-weighted goals scored and conceded, separate home/away performance, league scoring baseline, sample-size shrinkage and home advantage feed a Poisson score model. Fair odds are compared with bookmaker odds to calculate expected value.
Home Probability53.28%
Draw Probability19.92%
Away Probability26.80%
Historical evidence

Comparable-odds performance

Completed matches where the same market traded within the selected odds range.

1.05 — 1.35
Wins1,516
Losses484
Voids / Draws0
Avg. Goals3.07
Historical data is descriptive. Small samples may produce unstable percentages, and missing odds or scores are excluded.
Team form

Recent completed matches

Only the recent completed matches of the two teams in this analysis are shown.

6 each
HajdinaLast 6 completed
28 Oct Hajdina 0 – 2 NK Ormoz
10 Oct Sampion Celje 0 – 2 Hajdina
03 Oct Hajdina 0 – 0 Odranci
30 Sep Dobrovce 0 – 3 Hajdina
23 Sep Videm 2 – 2 Hajdina
19 Sep Hajdina 2 – 4 Fuzinar
NK OrmozLast 6 completed
28 Oct Hajdina 0 – 2 NK Ormoz
24 Oct NK Ormoz 1 – 3 Race
17 Oct NK Ormoz 2 – 0 Sampion Celje
10 Oct Odranci 3 – 0 NK Ormoz
03 Oct NK Ormoz 4 – 3 Dobrovce
26 Sep Fuzinar 4 – 3 NK Ormoz