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Match Centre SLOVENIA - 2. SNL Analysis
SOCCERTAB ANALYSIS
SLOVENIA flag SLOVENIA - 2. SNL • 28 Oct 2026

NK Jesenice

HOME
13:00
1:3
Finished

NK Bistrica

AWAY
Selected market
Double Chance 12
1.25
Current bookmaker price
Expected Value5.28%Vs form-based fair odds
Historical Sample2,000Comparable odds records
Historical Hit Rate75.2%Wins among decided matches
Historical ROI-7.52%Flat 1-unit calculation
Probability model

1X2 probability distribution

Bookmaker odds and their normalized 1X2 probabilities.

100% normalized
Home WinOdds 2.57
36.4%
DrawOdds 3.66
25.6%
Away WinOdds 2.46
38.0%
The displayed 1X2 probabilities show the bookmaker market. Expected value is calculated separately against the shared recent-form Poisson model, using only completed matches before kickoff.
Market scanner

All available markets

Compare each current bookmaker odd with the fair price from the shared recent-form model.

MarketCurrent OddsFair OddsValue
1Home Win
 2.57 1.38 +85.60%
XDraw
 3.66 6.34 -42.27%
2Away Win
 2.46 8.33 -70.46%
1XDouble Chance 1X
 1.50 1.14 +31.99%
12Double Chance 12
 1.25 1.19 +5.28%
X2Double Chance X2
 1.45 3.60 -59.72%
DNB1Draw No Bet 1
 1.91 1.17 +63.77%
DNB2Draw No Bet 2
 1.83 7.01 -73.91%
Comparative form

Common-opponent evidence

How both teams performed against the same league opponents before this fixture.

2 shared opponents
Evidence overview

Away team performed better by 33.3%

Based on 2 shared opponents. Historical comparison only; it does not guarantee the result.
NK Jesenice
Points earned1
Goal difference-1
Odds performance 6.00
NK Bistrica
Points earned3
Goal difference-1
Odds performance 2.00
Match-by-match comparisonMost recent completed result against each shared opponent
Win Draw Loss
Shared opponentNK JeseniceNK Bistrica
Dravinja
1–2
LossAway · 16 Oct 2026
0 pts
1–3
LossAway · 20 Sep 2026
0 pts
Brezice
2–2
DrawHome · 10 Oct 2026
1 pts
2–1
WinHome · 12 Sep 2026
3 pts
League strength

Recent-form Poisson model

Recent completed results, venue-specific scoring and goals conceded estimate fair probabilities. The strongest 1X2 outcome is selected first, then the highest expected-value eligible market is identified.

FORM MODEL

NK Jesenice

Position#8
Played12
Wins5
Draws2
Losses5
Goals For20
Goals Against19
Goal Difference1
Points17
Points / Game1.42
Win Rate41.7%
GD / Game0.08

NK Bistrica

Position#4
Played12
Wins6
Draws2
Losses4
Goals For17
Goals Against16
Goal Difference1
Points20
Points / Game1.67
Win Rate50.0%
GD / Game0.08
Calculation: Recency-weighted goals scored and conceded, separate home/away performance, league scoring baseline, sample-size shrinkage and home advantage feed a Poisson score model. Fair odds are compared with bookmaker odds to calculate expected value.
Home Probability72.22%
Draw Probability15.77%
Away Probability12.01%
Historical evidence

Comparable-odds performance

Completed matches where the same market traded within the selected odds range.

1.10 — 1.40
Wins1,504
Losses496
Voids / Draws0
Avg. Goals3.00
Historical data is descriptive. Small samples may produce unstable percentages, and missing odds or scores are excluded.
Team form

Recent completed matches

Only the recent completed matches of the two teams in this analysis are shown.

6 each
NK JeseniceLast 6 completed
28 Oct NK Jesenice 1 – 3 NK Bistrica
16 Oct Dravinja 2 – 1 NK Jesenice
10 Oct NK Jesenice 2 – 2 Brezice
04 Oct Triglav 4 – 0 NK Jesenice
27 Sep NK Jesenice 5 – 0 Vrhnika
20 Sep Bilje 0 – 2 NK Jesenice
NK BistricaLast 6 completed
28 Oct NK Jesenice 1 – 3 NK Bistrica
23 Oct NK Bistrica 4 – 3 Bilje
17 Oct NK Bistrica 1 – 0 Primorje
11 Oct Slovan Ljubljana 1 – 1 NK Bistrica
04 Oct NK Bistrica 3 – 1 Rudar
26 Sep Tabor Sezana 1 – 0 NK Bistrica