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Match Centre SLOVENIA - 2. SNL Analysis
SOCCERTAB ANALYSIS
SLOVENIA flag SLOVENIA - 2. SNL • 28 Oct 2026

Beltinci

HOME
13:00
3:4
Finished

Triglav

AWAY
Selected market
Double Chance 12
1.25
Current bookmaker price
Expected Value5.37%Vs form-based fair odds
Historical Sample2,000Comparable odds records
Historical Hit Rate75.2%Wins among decided matches
Historical ROI-7.52%Flat 1-unit calculation
Probability model

1X2 probability distribution

Bookmaker odds and their normalized 1X2 probabilities.

100% normalized
Home WinOdds 2.19
42.7%
DrawOdds 3.76
24.9%
Away WinOdds 2.88
32.5%
The displayed 1X2 probabilities show the bookmaker market. Expected value is calculated separately against the shared recent-form Poisson model, using only completed matches before kickoff.
Market scanner

All available markets

Compare each current bookmaker odd with the fair price from the shared recent-form model.

MarketCurrent OddsFair OddsValue
1Home Win
 2.19 1.39 +57.30%
XDraw
 3.76 6.37 -40.95%
2Away Win
 2.88 8.02 -64.10%
1XDouble Chance 1X
 1.40 1.14 +22.55%
12Double Chance 12
 1.25 1.19 +5.37%
X2Double Chance X2
 1.65 3.55 -53.52%
DNB1Draw No Bet 1
 1.65 1.17 +40.60%
DNB2Draw No Bet 2
 2.16 6.76 -68.06%
Comparative form

Common-opponent evidence

How both teams performed against the same league opponents before this fixture.

1 shared opponent
Evidence overview

Away team performed better by 66.7%

Based on 1 shared opponent. Historical comparison only; it does not guarantee the result.
Beltinci
Points earned1
Goal difference0
Odds performance 3.00
Triglav
Points earned3
Goal difference+1
Odds performance 1.00
Match-by-match comparisonMost recent completed result against each shared opponent
Win Draw Loss
Shared opponentBeltinciTriglav
Jadran Dekani
0–0
DrawAway · 13 Sep 2026
1 pts
1–0
WinHome · 16 Oct 2026
3 pts
League strength

Recent-form Poisson model

Recent completed results, venue-specific scoring and goals conceded estimate fair probabilities. The strongest 1X2 outcome is selected first, then the highest expected-value eligible market is identified.

FORM MODEL

Beltinci

Position#3
Played12
Wins8
Draws1
Losses3
Goals For33
Goals Against17
Goal Difference16
Points25
Points / Game2.08
Win Rate66.7%
GD / Game1.33

Triglav

Position#2
Played12
Wins9
Draws1
Losses2
Goals For25
Goals Against8
Goal Difference17
Points28
Points / Game2.33
Win Rate75.0%
GD / Game1.42
Calculation: Recency-weighted goals scored and conceded, separate home/away performance, league scoring baseline, sample-size shrinkage and home advantage feed a Poisson score model. Fair odds are compared with bookmaker odds to calculate expected value.
Home Probability71.83%
Draw Probability15.70%
Away Probability12.47%
Historical evidence

Comparable-odds performance

Completed matches where the same market traded within the selected odds range.

1.10 — 1.40
Wins1,504
Losses496
Voids / Draws0
Avg. Goals3.00
Historical data is descriptive. Small samples may produce unstable percentages, and missing odds or scores are excluded.
Team form

Recent completed matches

Only the recent completed matches of the two teams in this analysis are shown.

6 each
BeltinciLast 6 completed
28 Oct Beltinci 3 – 4 Triglav
25 Oct Tromejnik Montpreis 0 – 5 Beltinci
18 Oct Vrhnika 1 – 2 Beltinci
10 Oct Beltinci 5 – 1 Bilje
04 Oct Ilirija 2 – 4 Beltinci
27 Sep Beltinci 3 – 0 NK Krka
TriglavLast 6 completed
28 Oct Beltinci 3 – 4 Triglav
23 Oct Triglav 3 – 2 Nafta 1-1 (Pen: 4-2) Extra Time Brezice
23 Oct Triglav 1 – 1 Nafta
16 Oct Triglav 1 – 0 Jadran Dekani
11 Oct Krsko Posavje 0 – 2 Triglav
04 Oct Triglav 4 – 0 NK Jesenice