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Match Centre TUNISIA - Ligue 2 Analysis
SOCCERTAB ANALYSIS
TUNISIA flag TUNISIA - Ligue 2 • 27 Oct 2026

Redeyef

HOME
13:30
0:1
Finished

Jendouba Sport

AWAY
Selected market
Double Chance 12
1.30
Current bookmaker price
Expected Value-10.01%Vs form-based fair odds
Historical Sample2,000Comparable odds records
Historical Hit Rate74.1%Wins among decided matches
Historical ROI-8.01%Flat 1-unit calculation
Probability model

1X2 probability distribution

Bookmaker odds and their normalized 1X2 probabilities.

100% normalized
Home WinOdds 1.88
49.3%
DrawOdds 3.13
29.6%
Away WinOdds 4.38
21.1%
The displayed 1X2 probabilities show the bookmaker market. Expected value is calculated separately against the shared recent-form Poisson model, using only completed matches before kickoff.
Market scanner

All available markets

Compare each current bookmaker odd with the fair price from the shared recent-form model.

MarketCurrent OddsFair OddsValue
1Home Win
 1.88 2.23 -15.61%
XDraw
 3.13 3.25 -3.66%
2Away Win
 4.38 4.11 +6.58%
1XDouble Chance 1X
 1.15 1.32 -12.98%
12Double Chance 12
 1.30 1.44 -10.01%
X2Double Chance X2
 1.85 1.81 +1.96%
DNB1Draw No Bet 1
 1.34 1.54 -13.11%
DNB2Draw No Bet 2
 3.11 2.84 +9.33%
Comparative form

Common-opponent evidence

How both teams performed against the same league opponents before this fixture.

2 shared opponents
Evidence overview

Home team performed better by 33.3%

Based on 2 shared opponents. Historical comparison only; it does not guarantee the result.
Redeyef
Points earned6
Goal difference+6
Odds performance 1.00
Jendouba Sport
Points earned4
Goal difference+1
Odds performance 1.50
Match-by-match comparisonMost recent completed result against each shared opponent
Win Draw Loss
Shared opponentRedeyefJendouba Sport
Bouchamma
3–0
WinHome · 04 Oct 2026
3 pts
1–1
DrawHome · 20 Oct 2026
1 pts
Moknine
3–0
WinAway · 27 Sep 2026
3 pts
1–0
WinAway · 11 Oct 2026
3 pts
League strength

Recent-form Poisson model

Recent completed results, venue-specific scoring and goals conceded estimate fair probabilities. The strongest 1X2 outcome is selected first, then the highest expected-value eligible market is identified.

FORM MODEL

Redeyef

Position#36
Played4
Wins2
Draws0
Losses2
Goals For6
Goals Against2
Goal Difference4
Points6
Points / Game1.50
Win Rate50.0%
GD / Game1.00

Jendouba Sport

Position#34
Played4
Wins2
Draws1
Losses1
Goals For3
Goals Against2
Goal Difference1
Points7
Points / Game1.75
Win Rate50.0%
GD / Game0.25
Calculation: Recency-weighted goals scored and conceded, separate home/away performance, league scoring baseline, sample-size shrinkage and home advantage feed a Poisson score model. Fair odds are compared with bookmaker odds to calculate expected value.
Home Probability44.89%
Draw Probability30.78%
Away Probability24.33%
Historical evidence

Comparable-odds performance

Completed matches where the same market traded within the selected odds range.

1.15 — 1.45
Wins1,481
Losses519
Voids / Draws0
Avg. Goals2.95
Historical data is descriptive. Small samples may produce unstable percentages, and missing odds or scores are excluded.
Team form

Recent completed matches

Only the recent completed matches of the two teams in this analysis are shown.

6 each
RedeyefLast 6 completed
27 Oct Redeyef 0 – 1 Jendouba Sport
20 Oct Stade Gabesien 1 – 0 Redeyef
10 Oct Redeyef 0 – 1 Korba
04 Oct Redeyef 3 – 0 Bouchamma
27 Sep Moknine 0 – 3 Redeyef
Jendouba SportLast 6 completed
27 Oct Redeyef 0 – 1 Jendouba Sport
20 Oct Jendouba Sport 1 – 1 Bouchamma
11 Oct Moknine 0 – 1 Jendouba Sport
04 Oct Jendouba Sport 1 – 0 Ariana
27 Sep JS Kairouan 1 – 0 Jendouba Sport