⚽SoccerTab
Log in
Back to predictions
Match Centre TUNISIA - Ligue 2 Analysis
SOCCERTAB ANALYSIS
TUNISIA flag TUNISIA - Ligue 2 • 27 Oct 2026

CO Medenine

HOME
13:30
2:1
Finished

Olympique Kef

AWAY
Selected market
Double Chance 12
1.30
Current bookmaker price
Expected Value-5.48%Vs form-based fair odds
Historical Sample2,000Comparable odds records
Historical Hit Rate73.8%Wins among decided matches
Historical ROI-8.35%Flat 1-unit calculation
Probability model

1X2 probability distribution

Bookmaker odds and their normalized 1X2 probabilities.

100% normalized
Home WinOdds 3.51
26.4%
DrawOdds 3.10
29.9%
Away WinOdds 2.12
43.7%
The displayed 1X2 probabilities show the bookmaker market. Expected value is calculated separately against the shared recent-form Poisson model, using only completed matches before kickoff.
Market scanner

All available markets

Compare each current bookmaker odd with the fair price from the shared recent-form model.

MarketCurrent OddsFair OddsValue
1Home Win
 3.51 2.83 +24.13%
XDraw
 3.10 3.66 -15.39%
2Away Win
 2.12 2.68 -20.84%
1XDouble Chance 1X
 1.65 1.60 +3.39%
12Double Chance 12
 1.30 1.38 -5.48%
X2Double Chance X2
 1.25 1.55 -19.21%
DNB1Draw No Bet 1
 2.48 2.06 +20.63%
DNB2Draw No Bet 2
 1.50 1.95 -22.96%
Comparative form

Common-opponent evidence

How both teams performed against the same league opponents before this fixture.

3 shared opponents
Evidence overview

Away team performed better by 44.4%

Based on 3 shared opponents. Historical comparison only; it does not guarantee the result.
CO Medenine
Points earned0
Goal difference-7
Odds performance N/A
Olympique Kef
Points earned4
Goal difference0
Odds performance 2.25
Match-by-match comparisonMost recent completed result against each shared opponent
Win Draw Loss
Shared opponentCO MedenineOlympique Kef
EGS Gafsa
0–3
LossAway · 20 Oct 2026
0 pts
3–2
WinHome · 11 Oct 2026
3 pts
Kasserine
0–3
LossHome · 11 Oct 2026
0 pts
0–1
LossAway · 04 Oct 2026
0 pts
Ksour Essef
0–1
LossAway · 04 Oct 2026
0 pts
0–0
DrawHome · 27 Sep 2026
1 pts
League strength

Recent-form Poisson model

Recent completed results, venue-specific scoring and goals conceded estimate fair probabilities. The strongest 1X2 outcome is selected first, then the highest expected-value eligible market is identified.

FORM MODEL

CO Medenine

Position#44
Played4
Wins0
Draws0
Losses4
Goals For1
Goals Against9
Goal Difference-8
Points0
Points / Game0.00
Win Rate0.0%
GD / Game-2.00

Olympique Kef

Position#42
Played4
Wins1
Draws1
Losses2
Goals For4
Goals Against5
Goal Difference-1
Points4
Points / Game1.00
Win Rate25.0%
GD / Game-0.25
Calculation: Recency-weighted goals scored and conceded, separate home/away performance, league scoring baseline, sample-size shrinkage and home advantage feed a Poisson score model. Fair odds are compared with bookmaker odds to calculate expected value.
Home Probability35.37%
Draw Probability27.29%
Away Probability37.34%
Historical evidence

Comparable-odds performance

Completed matches where the same market traded within the selected odds range.

1.15 — 1.45
Wins1,475
Losses525
Voids / Draws0
Avg. Goals2.93
Historical data is descriptive. Small samples may produce unstable percentages, and missing odds or scores are excluded.
Team form

Recent completed matches

Only the recent completed matches of the two teams in this analysis are shown.

6 each
CO MedenineLast 6 completed
27 Oct CO Medenine 2 – 1 Olympique Kef
20 Oct EGS Gafsa 3 – 0 CO Medenine
11 Oct CO Medenine 0 – 3 Kasserine
04 Oct Ksour Essef 1 – 0 CO Medenine
27 Sep CO Medenine 1 – 2 Kalaa
Olympique KefLast 6 completed
27 Oct CO Medenine 2 – 1 Olympique Kef
20 Oct Korba 2 – 1 Olympique Kef
11 Oct Olympique Kef 3 – 2 EGS Gafsa
04 Oct Kasserine 1 – 0 Olympique Kef
27 Sep Olympique Kef 0 – 0 Ksour Essef