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Match Centre TAJIKISTAN - Vysshaya Liga Analysis
SOCCERTAB ANALYSIS
TAJIKISTAN flag TAJIKISTAN - Vysshaya Liga • 27 Oct 2026

Sardor Tursunzoda

HOME
10:30
2:0
Finished

Istaravshan

AWAY
Selected market
Double Chance 12
1.20
Current bookmaker price
Expected Value-7.64%Vs form-based fair odds
Historical Sample2,000Comparable odds records
Historical Hit Rate75.4%Wins among decided matches
Historical ROI-8.23%Flat 1-unit calculation
Probability model

1X2 probability distribution

Bookmaker odds and their normalized 1X2 probabilities.

100% normalized
Home WinOdds 1.48
63.5%
DrawOdds 4.29
21.9%
Away WinOdds 6.46
14.6%
The displayed 1X2 probabilities show the bookmaker market. Expected value is calculated separately against the shared recent-form Poisson model, using only completed matches before kickoff.
Market scanner

All available markets

Compare each current bookmaker odd with the fair price from the shared recent-form model.

MarketCurrent OddsFair OddsValue
1Home Win
 1.48 1.99 -25.75%
XDraw
 4.29 4.34 -1.19%
2Away Win
 6.46 3.73 +73.12%
1XDouble Chance 1X
 1.10 1.37 -19.48%
12Double Chance 12
 1.20 1.30 -7.64%
X2Double Chance X2
 2.60 2.01 +29.56%
DNB1Draw No Bet 1
 1.15 1.53 -25.04%
DNB2Draw No Bet 2
 5.02 2.87 +74.79%
Comparative form

Common-opponent evidence

How both teams performed against the same league opponents before this fixture.

2 shared opponents
Evidence overview

Home team performed better by 16.7%

Based on 2 shared opponents. Historical comparison only; it does not guarantee the result.
Sardor Tursunzoda
Points earned1
Goal difference-2
Odds performance 6.00
Istaravshan
Points earned0
Goal difference-5
Odds performance N/A
Match-by-match comparisonMost recent completed result against each shared opponent
Win Draw Loss
Shared opponentSardor TursunzodaIstaravshan
Eskhata
1–1
DrawHome · 12 Oct 2026
1 pts
1–3
LossAway · 16 Sep 2026
0 pts
Barkchi Hisor
0–2
LossAway · 16 Sep 2026
0 pts
1–4
LossHome · 11 Sep 2026
0 pts
League strength

Recent-form Poisson model

Recent completed results, venue-specific scoring and goals conceded estimate fair probabilities. The strongest 1X2 outcome is selected first, then the highest expected-value eligible market is identified.

FORM MODEL

Sardor Tursunzoda

Position#11
Played18
Wins3
Draws6
Losses9
Goals For26
Goals Against32
Goal Difference-6
Points15
Points / Game0.83
Win Rate16.7%
GD / Game-0.33

Istaravshan

Position#12
Played20
Wins0
Draws6
Losses14
Goals For15
Goals Against39
Goal Difference-24
Points6
Points / Game0.30
Win Rate0.0%
GD / Game-1.20
Calculation: Recency-weighted goals scored and conceded, separate home/away performance, league scoring baseline, sample-size shrinkage and home advantage feed a Poisson score model. Fair odds are compared with bookmaker odds to calculate expected value.
Home Probability50.17%
Draw Probability23.03%
Away Probability26.80%
Historical evidence

Comparable-odds performance

Completed matches where the same market traded within the selected odds range.

1.05 — 1.35
Wins1,508
Losses492
Voids / Draws0
Avg. Goals3.06
Historical data is descriptive. Small samples may produce unstable percentages, and missing odds or scores are excluded.
Team form

Recent completed matches

Only the recent completed matches of the two teams in this analysis are shown.

6 each
Sardor TursunzodaLast 6 completed
27 Oct Sardor Tursunzoda 2 – 0 Istaravshan
12 Oct Sardor Tursunzoda 1 – 1 Eskhata
16 Sep Barkchi Hisor 2 – 0 Sardor Tursunzoda
11 Sep Sardor Tursunzoda 3 – 3 Vakhsh
IstaravshanLast 6 completed
27 Oct Sardor Tursunzoda 2 – 0 Istaravshan
20 Oct Istaravshan 0 – 1 Ravshan
10 Oct Istaravshan 0 – 1 CSKA Pomir Dushanbe
16 Sep Eskhata 3 – 1 Istaravshan
11 Sep Istaravshan 1 – 4 Barkchi Hisor