GERMANY - Oberliga Baden-Württemberg
•
27 Oct 2026
Karlsruher SC II
HOME 18:00
VS
MATCH PREVIEW
Nottingen
AWAYSelected market
Double Chance 12
1.20
Current bookmaker price
Expected Value-3.35%Vs form-based fair odds
Historical Sample2,000Comparable odds records
Historical Hit Rate75.6%Wins among decided matches
Historical ROI-7.98%Flat 1-unit calculation
Probability model
1X2 probability distribution
Bookmaker odds and their normalized 1X2 probabilities.
100% normalized
Home WinOdds 4.47
21.1%DrawOdds 4.17
22.6%Away WinOdds 1.67
56.4% The displayed 1X2 probabilities show the bookmaker market. Expected value is calculated separately against the shared recent-form Poisson model, using only completed matches before kickoff.
Market scanner
All available markets
Compare each current bookmaker odd with the fair price from the shared recent-form model.
| Market | Current Odds | Fair Odds | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
1Home Win |
4.47 | 1.92 | +100.00% | |
XDraw |
4.17 | 5.14 | -18.86% | |
2Away Win |
1.67 | 3.53 | -52.68% | |
1XDouble Chance 1X |
2.15 | 1.40 | +54.08% | |
12Double Chance 12 |
1.20 | 1.24 | -3.35% | |
X2Double Chance X2 |
1.20 | 2.09 | -42.65% | |
DNB1Draw No Bet 1 |
3.44 | 1.54 | +100.00% | |
DNB2Draw No Bet 2 |
1.28 | 2.84 | -54.97% |
Comparative form
Common-opponent evidence
How both teams performed against the same league opponents before this fixture.
4 shared opponents
Karlsruher SC II
Points earned5
Goal difference0
Odds performance
2.40
Nottingen
Points earned9
Goal difference+14
Odds performance
1.33
Match-by-match comparisonMost recent completed result against each shared opponent
Win Draw Loss| Shared opponent | Karlsruher SC II | Nottingen |
|---|---|---|
Pforzheim |
3–23 pts |
4–13 pts |
Ravensburg |
2–21 pts |
3–13 pts |
Neckarsulm |
1–20 pts |
10–03 pts |
Essingen |
0–01 pts |
1–20 pts |
League strength
Recent-form Poisson model
Recent completed results, venue-specific scoring and goals conceded estimate fair probabilities. The strongest 1X2 outcome is selected first, then the highest expected-value eligible market is identified.
FORM MODEL
Karlsruher SC II
| Position | #8 |
| Played | 12 |
| Wins | 5 |
| Draws | 4 |
| Losses | 3 |
| Goals For | 23 |
| Goals Against | 22 |
| Goal Difference | 1 |
| Points | 19 |
| Points / Game | 1.58 |
| Win Rate | 41.7% |
| GD / Game | 0.08 |
Nottingen
| Position | #16 |
| Played | 12 |
| Wins | 4 |
| Draws | 0 |
| Losses | 8 |
| Goals For | 28 |
| Goals Against | 21 |
| Goal Difference | 7 |
| Points | 12 |
| Points / Game | 1.00 |
| Win Rate | 33.3% |
| GD / Game | 0.58 |
Calculation: Recency-weighted goals scored and conceded, separate home/away performance, league scoring baseline, sample-size shrinkage and home advantage feed a Poisson score model. Fair odds are compared with bookmaker odds to calculate expected value.
Home Probability52.21%
Draw Probability19.46%
Away Probability28.34%
Historical evidence
Comparable-odds performance
Completed matches where the same market traded within the selected odds range.
1.05 — 1.35
Wins1,511
Losses489
Voids / Draws0
Avg. Goals3.06
Historical data is descriptive. Small samples may produce unstable percentages, and missing odds or scores are excluded.
Team form
Recent completed matches
Only the recent completed matches of the two teams in this analysis are shown.
6 each
Karlsruher SC IILast 6 completed
17 Oct
Teningen
2 – 4
Karlsruher SC II
11 Oct
Karlsruher SC II
3 – 2
1. FC Muhlhausen
04 Oct
Karlsruher SC II
2 – 1
Balingen
25 Sep
Pforzheim
2 – 3
Karlsruher SC II
20 Sep
Karlsruher SC II
2 – 2
Ravensburg
13 Sep
Neckarsulm
2 – 1
Karlsruher SC II
NottingenLast 6 completed
16 Oct
Nottingen
4 – 1
Pforzheim
10 Oct
Ravensburg
1 – 3
Nottingen
03 Oct
Nottingen
10 – 0
Neckarsulm
26 Sep
Essingen
2 – 1
Nottingen
18 Sep
Nottingen
2 – 3
Young Boys Reutlingen
13 Sep
Singen
4 – 3
Nottingen