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Match Centre SAUDI ARABIA - Division 1 Analysis
SOCCERTAB ANALYSIS
SAUDI ARABIA flag SAUDI ARABIA - Division 1 • 28 Oct 2026

Al Jandal

HOME
12:35
0:2
Finished

Damac

AWAY
Selected market
Double Chance 12
1.30
Current bookmaker price
Expected Value4.64%Vs form-based fair odds
Historical Sample2,000Comparable odds records
Historical Hit Rate74.3%Wins among decided matches
Historical ROI-7.73%Flat 1-unit calculation
Probability model

1X2 probability distribution

Bookmaker odds and their normalized 1X2 probabilities.

100% normalized
Home WinOdds 2.94
31.8%
DrawOdds 3.37
27.7%
Away WinOdds 2.31
40.5%
The displayed 1X2 probabilities show the bookmaker market. Expected value is calculated separately against the shared recent-form Poisson model, using only completed matches before kickoff.
Market scanner

All available markets

Compare each current bookmaker odd with the fair price from the shared recent-form model.

MarketCurrent OddsFair OddsValue
1Home Win
 2.94 1.63 +80.12%
XDraw
 3.37 5.13 -34.26%
2Away Win
 2.31 5.20 -55.59%
1XDouble Chance 1X
 1.55 1.24 +25.20%
12Double Chance 12
 1.30 1.24 +4.64%
X2Double Chance X2
 1.35 2.58 -47.71%
DNB1Draw No Bet 1
 2.13 1.31 +62.12%
DNB2Draw No Bet 2
 1.67 4.19 -60.11%
Comparative form

Common-opponent evidence

How both teams performed against the same league opponents before this fixture.

2 shared opponents
Evidence overview

Away team performed better by 50.0%

Based on 2 shared opponents. Historical comparison only; it does not guarantee the result.
Al Jandal
Points earned3
Goal difference+2
Odds performance 2.00
Damac
Points earned6
Goal difference+2
Odds performance 1.00
Match-by-match comparisonMost recent completed result against each shared opponent
Win Draw Loss
Shared opponentAl JandalDamac
Al Adalah
0–1
LossAway · 14 Sep 2026
0 pts
3–2
WinHome · 20 Sep 2026
3 pts
Al Bukiryah
4–1
WinHome · 09 Sep 2026
3 pts
2–1
WinAway · 14 Sep 2026
3 pts
League strength

Recent-form Poisson model

Recent completed results, venue-specific scoring and goals conceded estimate fair probabilities. The strongest 1X2 outcome is selected first, then the highest expected-value eligible market is identified.

FORM MODEL

Al Jandal

Position#15
Played8
Wins1
Draws3
Losses4
Goals For10
Goals Against12
Goal Difference-2
Points6
Points / Game0.75
Win Rate12.5%
GD / Game-0.25

Damac

Position#3
Played9
Wins4
Draws3
Losses2
Goals For13
Goals Against10
Goal Difference3
Points15
Points / Game1.67
Win Rate44.4%
GD / Game0.33
Calculation: Recency-weighted goals scored and conceded, separate home/away performance, league scoring baseline, sample-size shrinkage and home advantage feed a Poisson score model. Fair odds are compared with bookmaker odds to calculate expected value.
Home Probability61.27%
Draw Probability19.51%
Away Probability19.23%
Historical evidence

Comparable-odds performance

Completed matches where the same market traded within the selected odds range.

1.15 — 1.45
Wins1,485
Losses515
Voids / Draws0
Avg. Goals2.95
Historical data is descriptive. Small samples may produce unstable percentages, and missing odds or scores are excluded.
Team form

Recent completed matches

Only the recent completed matches of the two teams in this analysis are shown.

6 each
Al JandalLast 6 completed
28 Oct Al Jandal 0 – 2 Damac
14 Oct Al Jandal 1 – 1 Al Okhdood
20 Sep Al Jandal 2 – 2 Al Wehda
14 Sep Al Adalah 1 – 0 Al Jandal
09 Sep Al Jandal 4 – 1 Al Bukiryah
DamacLast 6 completed
28 Oct Al Jandal 0 – 2 Damac
20 Oct Damac 4 – 1 Al Taee
12 Oct Al Najma 3 – 0 Damac
20 Sep Damac 3 – 2 Al Adalah
14 Sep Al Bukiryah 1 – 2 Damac
08 Sep Damac 0 – 1 Al-Ula