ITALY - Serie D - Group I
•
28 Oct 2026
Castrumfavara
HOME 87'
2:2
Live
Reggina
AWAYSelected market
Double Chance 12
1.20
Current bookmaker price
Expected Value-10.82%Vs form-based fair odds
Historical Sample2,000Comparable odds records
Historical Hit Rate75.9%Wins among decided matches
Historical ROI-7.63%Flat 1-unit calculation
Probability model
1X2 probability distribution
Bookmaker odds and their normalized 1X2 probabilities.
100% normalized
Home WinOdds 5.80
16.1%DrawOdds 4.11
22.8%Away WinOdds 1.53
61.1% The displayed 1X2 probabilities show the bookmaker market. Expected value is calculated separately against the shared recent-form Poisson model, using only completed matches before kickoff.
Market scanner
All available markets
Compare each current bookmaker odd with the fair price from the shared recent-form model.
| Market | Current Odds | Fair Odds | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
1Home Win |
5.80 | 5.02 | +15.49% | |
XDraw |
4.11 | 3.89 | +5.54% | |
2Away Win |
1.53 | 1.84 | -16.76% | |
1XDouble Chance 1X |
2.40 | 2.19 | +9.42% | |
12Double Chance 12 |
1.20 | 1.35 | -10.82% | |
X2Double Chance X2 |
1.10 | 1.25 | -11.90% | |
DNB1Draw No Bet 1 |
4.48 | 3.73 | +20.03% | |
DNB2Draw No Bet 2 |
1.18 | 1.37 | -13.62% |
Comparative form
Common-opponent evidence
How both teams performed against the same league opponents before this fixture.
5 shared opponents
Castrumfavara
Points earned3
Goal difference-4
Odds performance
5.00
Reggina
Points earned12
Goal difference+9
Odds performance
1.25
Match-by-match comparisonMost recent completed result against each shared opponent
Win Draw Loss| Shared opponent | Castrumfavara | Reggina |
|---|---|---|
Trapani |
0–10 pts |
0–10 pts |
Igea Virtus |
3–23 pts |
2–03 pts |
Vigor Lamezia |
0–20 pts |
3–03 pts |
Calcio Avola |
0–10 pts |
4–03 pts |
Modica |
0–10 pts |
1–03 pts |
League strength
Recent-form Poisson model
Recent completed results, venue-specific scoring and goals conceded estimate fair probabilities. The strongest 1X2 outcome is selected first, then the highest expected-value eligible market is identified.
FORM MODEL
Castrumfavara
| Position | #14 |
| Played | 8 |
| Wins | 2 |
| Draws | 1 |
| Losses | 5 |
| Goals For | 8 |
| Goals Against | 10 |
| Goal Difference | -2 |
| Points | 7 |
| Points / Game | 0.88 |
| Win Rate | 25.0% |
| GD / Game | -0.25 |
Reggina
| Position | #2 |
| Played | 8 |
| Wins | 6 |
| Draws | 1 |
| Losses | 1 |
| Goals For | 18 |
| Goals Against | 3 |
| Goal Difference | 15 |
| Points | 19 |
| Points / Game | 2.38 |
| Win Rate | 75.0% |
| GD / Game | 1.88 |
Calculation: Recency-weighted goals scored and conceded, separate home/away performance, league scoring baseline, sample-size shrinkage and home advantage feed a Poisson score model. Fair odds are compared with bookmaker odds to calculate expected value.
Home Probability19.91%
Draw Probability25.68%
Away Probability54.41%
Historical evidence
Comparable-odds performance
Completed matches where the same market traded within the selected odds range.
1.05 — 1.35
Wins1,517
Losses483
Voids / Draws0
Avg. Goals3.07
Historical data is descriptive. Small samples may produce unstable percentages, and missing odds or scores are excluded.
Team form
Recent completed matches
Only the recent completed matches of the two teams in this analysis are shown.
6 each
CastrumfavaraLast 6 completed
28 Oct
Castrumfavara
2 – 2
Reggina
18 Oct
Trapani
1 – 0
Castrumfavara
11 Oct
Castrumfavara
3 – 2
Igea Virtus
04 Oct
Vigor Lamezia
2 – 0
Castrumfavara
27 Sep
Castrumfavara
0 – 1
Calcio Avola
20 Sep
Modica
1 – 0
Castrumfavara
RegginaLast 6 completed
28 Oct
Castrumfavara
2 – 2
Reggina
18 Oct
Nissa
1 – 2
Reggina
11 Oct
Reggina
1 – 1
Vibonese
07 Oct
Igea Virtus
3 – 2
Reggina
04 Oct
Trapani
1 – 0
Reggina
27 Sep
Reggina
2 – 0
Igea Virtus