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Match Centre ITALY - Serie C - Group B Analysis
SOCCERTAB ANALYSIS
ITALY flag ITALY - Serie C - Group B • 28 Oct 2026

Atalanta U23

HOME
90+'
2:0
Live

Vis Pesaro

AWAY
Selected market
Double Chance 12
1.25
Current bookmaker price
Expected Value-4.08%Vs form-based fair odds
Historical Sample2,000Comparable odds records
Historical Hit Rate74.5%Wins among decided matches
Historical ROI-8.54%Flat 1-unit calculation
Probability model

1X2 probability distribution

Bookmaker odds and their normalized 1X2 probabilities.

100% normalized
Home WinOdds 1.64
57.0%
DrawOdds 3.86
24.2%
Away WinOdds 4.96
18.8%
The displayed 1X2 probabilities show the bookmaker market. Expected value is calculated separately against the shared recent-form Poisson model, using only completed matches before kickoff.
Market scanner

All available markets

Compare each current bookmaker odd with the fair price from the shared recent-form model.

MarketCurrent OddsFair OddsValue
1Home Win
 1.64 1.85 -11.58%
XDraw
 3.86 4.30 -10.21%
2Away Win
 4.96 4.38 +13.20%
1XDouble Chance 1X
 1.15 1.30 -11.25%
12Double Chance 12
 1.25 1.30 -4.08%
X2Double Chance X2
 2.15 2.17 -0.92%
DNB1Draw No Bet 1
 1.24 1.42 -12.88%
DNB2Draw No Bet 2
 3.76 3.36 +11.83%
Comparative form

Common-opponent evidence

How both teams performed against the same league opponents before this fixture.

2 shared opponents
Evidence overview

Home team has the better goal difference

Based on 2 shared opponents. Historical comparison only; it does not guarantee the result.
Atalanta U23
Points earned0
Goal difference-4
Odds performance N/A
Vis Pesaro
Points earned0
Goal difference-5
Odds performance N/A
Match-by-match comparisonMost recent completed result against each shared opponent
Win Draw Loss
Shared opponentAtalanta U23Vis Pesaro
Latina
0–2
LossAway · 14 Oct 2026
0 pts
0–1
LossAway · 18 Oct 2026
0 pts
Ravenna
0–2
LossHome · 20 Sep 2026
0 pts
0–4
LossHome · 24 Oct 2026
0 pts
League strength

Recent-form Poisson model

Recent completed results, venue-specific scoring and goals conceded estimate fair probabilities. The strongest 1X2 outcome is selected first, then the highest expected-value eligible market is identified.

FORM MODEL

Atalanta U23

Position#11
Played11
Wins5
Draws0
Losses6
Goals For13
Goals Against16
Goal Difference-3
Points15
Points / Game1.36
Win Rate45.5%
GD / Game-0.27

Vis Pesaro

Position#20
Played11
Wins1
Draws1
Losses9
Goals For11
Goals Against26
Goal Difference-15
Points4
Points / Game0.36
Win Rate9.1%
GD / Game-1.36
Calculation: Recency-weighted goals scored and conceded, separate home/away performance, league scoring baseline, sample-size shrinkage and home advantage feed a Poisson score model. Fair odds are compared with bookmaker odds to calculate expected value.
Home Probability53.91%
Draw Probability23.26%
Away Probability22.82%
Historical evidence

Comparable-odds performance

Completed matches where the same market traded within the selected odds range.

1.10 — 1.40
Wins1,490
Losses510
Voids / Draws0
Avg. Goals2.99
Historical data is descriptive. Small samples may produce unstable percentages, and missing odds or scores are excluded.
Team form

Recent completed matches

Only the recent completed matches of the two teams in this analysis are shown.

6 each
Atalanta U23Last 6 completed
28 Oct Atalanta U23 2 – 0 Vis Pesaro
24 Oct Atalanta U23 1 – 2 Campobasso
18 Oct Gubbio 0 – 2 Atalanta U23
14 Oct Latina 2 – 0 Atalanta U23
11 Oct Torres 2 – 1 Atalanta U23
20 Sep Atalanta U23 0 – 2 Ravenna
Vis PesaroLast 6 completed
28 Oct Atalanta U23 2 – 0 Vis Pesaro
24 Oct Vis Pesaro 0 – 4 Ravenna
18 Oct Latina 1 – 0 Vis Pesaro
10 Oct Vis Pesaro 2 – 3 Grosseto
27 Sep Vis Pesaro 2 – 1 Guidonia
21 Sep Spezia 3 – 1 Vis Pesaro